1 



resource demands are less obvious, but it is 

 important that some estimates of these be 

 made so that management direction can prop- 

 erly be set. A long-range investment program 

 cannot be justified unless there is reasonable 

 expectation that demand for the benefits or 

 outputs of that program will continue through 

 the life of the investment. 



The manager, whether he is a private indi- 

 vidual or corporation, or government agency, 

 must produce outputs to meet the market's 

 demands, whether the output is timber sold for 

 cash or bird-watching provided free to the 

 user. The use must exist to complete the trans- 

 action and justify the management. Thus, the 

 purpose of the demand analyses in the study 

 has been to provide information from which 

 to establish demand targets for use in structur- 

 ing management alternatives. 



The procedure used was to obtain the best 

 information available about the probable range 

 of future demands for use in producing policy 

 alternatives that encompass these needs. De- 

 mands described in the report are based on the 

 best information available. No detailed "de- 

 mand analyses," per se, were attempted in the 

 present effort. Demand as used here constitutes 

 estimates of future needs and does not involve 

 the price schedules required for demand analy- 

 sis in the economic sense. 



OUTLOOK FOR DEMANDS 



Outlook for demands has been developed 

 within the context of the commitments of the 

 Nation to stewardship of basic resources, to 

 maintenance or enhancement of environmental 

 quality, to production of foods and services, 

 and to social needs. 



ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 



The state of the Nation's economy will influ- 

 ence the management and use of the forest- 

 range environment. The economic situation on 

 which projected needs and opportunities for 

 management of the forest-range environment 

 are based, is briefly outlined here. 



The projected population of 281 million 

 people in the year 2000 is about 1.3 times the 

 1970 population^ (fig. 23). The general econ- 

 omy is assumed to remain stable and produc- 

 tive. Production value per man-hour in the year 

 2000 will be nearly two and one-half times what 

 it was in 1970. The economy is expected to yield 

 a Gross National Product (GNP) of $1,152 



billion in 1980 and of $2,350 billion in 2000. 

 The GNP will more than double in the 20 years 

 between 1960 and 1980, and will increase by 

 more than five times between 1980 and 2000 

 (table 7). 



Table 7. — Selected national aggregates as 

 indicators of the United States economy ^ 







Product 



Gross 



Personal 





Total 

 population" 



per 



National 



income 



Year 



man-hour 

 in 1958 



Product 

 in 1958 



per capita 

 in 1958 







dollars^ 



dollars 



dollars 





Million 



Dollars 



Million 



Dollars 





people 





dollars 





1950 



152 



2.78 



355,288 



1,805 



1960 



181 



3.68 



487,682 



2,134 



1968 ___ 



201 



4.93 



707,608 



3,020 



1970 



205 



n 



n 



n 



1980 ___ 



228 



7.03 



1,152,000 



4,112 



2000 



281 



12.69 



2,350,000 



7,161 



' Mounting concerns about population growth make 

 any one population projection suspect. Success in 

 achieving a national goal of two children per family, 

 were this to be a national policy on population growth, 

 would result in a year 2000 population of 271 million; 

 a 3-child family — 322 million (Domestic Council Com- 

 mittee on National Growth, 1972). 



^ Data developed from materials prepared by Office of 

 Business Economics, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, for U.S. 

 Water Resource Council, 1968. 



- Bureau of Census makes population projections at 

 six levels, B, C, D, E, F, and X. "B" is the highest; 

 "X" is the lowest projection level. The projections used 

 here are based on Bureau of Census, level "D" from 

 Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 448. 

 Level "D" is slightly lower than the level used in 

 studies prior to this report. Also see U.S. Bureau of 

 Census, Current Population Reports, series P-25, No. 

 470, "Projections of the Population of the United 

 States, by Age and Sex: 1970 to 2020," U.S. Govern- 

 ment Printing Office, for discussion of current revisions 

 in population projections. 



' Value of production per man-hour worked in the 

 private sector of the economy. 



' Not available. 



Prospects for population growth vary by 

 region. The Western States wifl about triple in 

 population. The Northeast, growing slower 

 than the Nation, will not quite double its popu- 

 lation. The Plains and Southeast are expected 

 to add population at about the national average 

 rate. 



Agricultural prices were assumed to fall 

 below those of the 1964-69 level. This stems 

 from a prior assumption that the government 

 will decrease agricultural production control 

 programs and provide support prices at 65 per- 

 cent of the parity level established in 1959- 

 1961. With lower price supports and fewer 

 production controls, the prices for primary field 

 crops (especially feeds) will be lower, but the 

 release of land will permit expanded produc- 

 tion. The overall agricultural price framework 

 wall retain 1964-1969 internal price relation- 

 ship at levels slightly lower than the rest of 

 the economy. Nonagricultural segments of the 



40 



