economy are assumed to retain the basic rela- 

 tionship for the 1964-69 period. 



POLITICAL-SOCIAL OUTLOOK 



Noneconomic developments will also influ- 

 ence policies and programs for forest-rangeS. 

 We can expect educated, informed people to 

 participate more actively in the political 

 process than ever before. The balance of influ- 

 ence will shift. The clientele interested in th 

 forest-range will broaden. Where dialogue 

 formerly has been primarily with direct users 

 of intermediate outputs (e.g., timber and ani- 

 mal unit months of grazing), the future will 

 see more involvement with consumers of final 

 outputs and with people interested in the qual- 

 ity of environment and human life. 



New social and political concerns are not 

 passing fads. Nor is the concern over pollu- 

 tion and other environmental degradation 

 ephemeral. Basic political and social changes 

 may be expected. These changes will materially 

 affect management of natural resources, includ- 

 ing those of the forest-range. Environmental 

 quality is one form of "public goods and ser- 

 vices" that generally will have to be provided 

 for more adequately in decisions by individuals, 

 private firms, and government. 



Foreign trade in livestock products from 

 forest-range is a potentially important variable, 

 and revisions of import and export policies 

 could lead to increases or decreases in total 

 domestic production. Nonetheless, it has been 

 assumed that foreign policy will not undergo 

 a major change. 



DEMANDS FOR OUTPUTS 



Outputs from the forest-range environment 

 are numerous and varied. This study has dealt 

 with the 22 named in Chapter I, Inventory 

 Concepts and Procedures, and mentioned in 

 part in the introduction to this chapter. The 

 choice in this analysis was to be inclusive but 

 to use the terms and outputs most common 

 to forest-range in a multiple-use context. 

 Therefore, demands were expressed for live- 

 stock grazing and for such nongrazing outputs 

 as timber, water, and environmental quality. 

 The emphasis is on livestock grazing with only 

 trend indicated for the other outputs. 



LIVESTOCK GRAZING 



Grazing of livestock (expressed here in 

 animal unit months) is an intermediate output 

 from forest-range. Range livestock production, 

 operating within the context of total produc- 

 tion of livestock, will share the fate of the 

 rest of agriculture. Consideration, therefore, 

 is given to the outlook for livestock production 

 and its implications for grazing for forest- 

 range (fig. 24). 



Projected growth in population and income 

 will continue to expand markets for farm prod- 

 ucts. Rising incomes will permit shifts in the 

 composition of human diets. More foods of 

 higher value, such as meat, will be consumed. 

 Despite alternative sources of protein for 

 human diets, livestock products will continue 

 to be important to botli the farmer and the 

 consumer during the next two decades. 



Consumption of lamb and mutton, pork, eggs, 

 and dairy products has declined recently, but 

 consumption of poultry and beef has increased 

 substantially (fig. 25). Preference for beef is 

 expected to continue to increase (fig. 26). 



The annual per capita consumption of 

 pounds of selected meat by civilians for speci- 

 fied periods and expected in 1980 and 2000 is 

 as follows: ^ 



Actually Consumed 



Projected 



19i7-i9 1957-59 1963-65 1980 2000 



Beef and veal 75.3 



Lamb and mutton 4.8 



89.2 

 4.4 



102.9 

 4.2 



130.0 135.0 

 2.8 2.5 



Veal declined from about 5 percent of total 

 beef consumption in 1965 to about 3 percent in 

 1968, and it is expected to decline to about 

 2 percent by 1980 and to about 1 percent by 

 the year 2000. 



Per capita consumption of wool is expected 

 to dechne slightly, but total consumption will 

 increase because of population growth, as shown 

 in the following tabulation: 



1965 1980 2000 

 Wool consumption per capita, pounds _ 2.0 1.9 1.8 

 Total consumption of wool, million lbs. 387 447 554 



The United States has substantial net im- 

 ports of lamb and mutton, wool, and sheep- 

 skins. About 70 to 75 percent of our wool is 

 imported, and we get up to 20 percent of our 

 lamb and mutton from other countries. Thus, 

 continuing preference for beef over lamb and 

 mutton, and the impacts of imports, indicate 

 further reduction of the domestic production 

 of sheep. 



Much of the increased demand for beef has 

 been met by extending and intensifying opera- 

 tions in feedlots. In the 1950's, large numbers 

 of cattle and some lambs went directly to 

 slaughter from range or pastures. Now, fewer 

 cattle are slaughtered as "grassfat," and an 

 increasing share of meat production is from 

 concentrates in feedlots (fig. 27). 



The trend toward fattening beef in feedlots, 

 coupled with a decline in dairy herds, has 

 resulted in a relatively short domestic supply 



" From unpublished data developed by the Natural 

 Resources Economics Division, Economic Research Ser- 

 vice, USDA. 



42 



