In the face of the changing technology of 

 beef production and apparent untapped produc- 

 tivity of pasture forage and other feed produc- 

 tion sources, it might appear that forest-range 

 may not be "needed" for livestock production. 

 No doubt it is possible that other feeds and 

 feed sources have the potential to provide the 

 feed now supplied by grazing the forest-range. 

 However, this study assumed a conservative 

 viewpoint regarding such shifts. And the Na- 

 tion could eat less meat; but this viewpoint, 

 while possible for the United States, is not 

 realistic. 



There are other indicators that suggest con- 

 tinued high demand over the next 10 to 20 

 years for use of the Nation's range resources 

 for forest-range livestock grazing. Historically, 

 cattle and sheep have been the principal mar- 

 ketable outputs of forest-range ecosystems. 

 The most consistent feature of the historic role 

 of the forest-range has been its use as a low- 

 cost feed source. Furthermore, many rural 

 economies are substantially dependent on pro- 

 duction of livestock from forest-range eco- 

 systems. Increasing the production of range 

 livestock may help strengthen these local or 

 regional economies. 



Forest-range lands can compete as they do 

 now in providing the additional feeder cattle 

 needed in the next 10 to 20 years if range 

 costs do not increase relative to other feed 

 sources. Competition among regions of the 

 Nation will partly reflect availability of land 

 and relative costs for raising feeder cattle. 

 Forest-range will continue to support domestic 

 production of lambs and wool. 



Grazing Targets 



The nature of the analyses used in the study 

 required information on the demand for forest- 

 range grazing that would make possible estab- 

 lishing "targets." Management within econom- 

 ic, social, and political constraints, and knowl- 

 edge of the limitations of the environment it- 

 self to produce, are directed toward meeting 

 these goals. The forest-range grazing targets, 

 expressed in animal unit months of grazing, 

 were derived from published and other infor- 

 mation on common parameters as described 

 here. 



Expected domestic production of beef, veal, 

 lamb, and mutton was derived by projecting 

 population, multiplying by consumption per 

 capita, and subtracting the projected level of 

 imports. The probable demand for grazing can 

 be estimated from the total domestic produc- 

 tion required in 1980 and 2000. Because the 

 lamb and sheep portion of the feed required 

 and production expected is very small, the 

 domestic production of lamb and sheep has 

 been added to that of beef and veal. Thus, a 

 single requirement for livestock was computed. 



Projections of domestic production of live- 

 stock were used to estimate requirements for 

 feed under these assumptions : 



1. One and three-quarters pounds of beef 

 must be grown to produce 1 pound of 

 carcass weight. 



2. Thirty-six of every 100 pounds of beef 

 grown will be produced by feeding con- 

 centrates in feedlots in 1980 and 2000, 

 as compared to 25 pounds in the period 

 1962 to 1966. 



3. An additional 3.75 percent of liveweight 

 production in 1980 and 3.50 percent in 

 2000 will be required for the expansion 

 of beef breeding herds. 



4. An increase of 7 percent in the conver- 

 sion efficiency of feed will occur between 

 1970 and 2000. 



5. In the production of beef, the share of 

 feed supplied by grazing improved pas- 

 tures, crop aftermath, and similar 

 sources, and the share of grazing sup- 

 plied by forest-range will remain fairly 

 constant. This assumption of constant 

 relationship between forest-range and all 

 other sources of grazing is accepted as 

 being suspect; but since reliable data 

 were not available, no estimate of the 

 changing relationship was attempted. 



The results obtained in estimating the de- 

 mand for forest-range grazing, when compared 

 to other similar studies, appear reasonable. In 

 summary, the projections were derived in the 

 following manner: 



Projected population times projected per 

 capita consumption of meat, plus other 

 uses, results in total domestic consump- 

 tion of beef and mutton. Per capital con- 

 sumption was derived within a context of 

 total food consumption including other 

 meats, and as modified by changes in 

 income and taste preferences. 



Total domestic consumption of beef and 

 mutton was further modified by the con- 

 sideration of beef and mutton imports and 

 exports. Thus, a total domestic production 

 of beef and mutton was estimated. 



Domestic production times the quantity 

 of feed required per pound of meat pro- 

 duced indicated the total feed requirements 

 and the particular mix of feeds included 

 in these requirements. The total feed and 

 feed mix was then modified by expected 

 changes in the structure of beef industry, 

 feed conversion efficiency, livestock breed- 

 ing, production in feed lots, quality of 

 feeds, knowledge of livestock diet needs, 

 and production capabilities of various 

 feeds. 



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