The computed result is an indication of 

 the total grazing requirement. The total 

 grazing requirement was then divided 

 between grazing of improved pastures and 

 grazing of the forest-range environment. 

 These grazing requirements of the forest- 

 range environment were used to compute an 

 index. The index was applied to the production 

 of animal unit months in 1970 as derived in 

 Chapter II, Resource Situation — 1970, in order 

 to project production requirements for grazing 

 in 1980 and 2000 from forest-range (fig. 29). 

 In addition, a long-range target was estimated 

 for the year 2020, The resulting levels for 

 grazing from the forest-range environment 

 were: 



320 





1970 



1980 



2000 



2020 



Index 



100 



120 



150 



185 



AUM's, millions 



213 



256 



320 



394 



The AUM targets for 1980 and 2000 are not 

 absolute requirements. They are reasonable 

 levels given the limits of analysis, available 

 knowledge, and stated estimates. Other things 

 being equal, a basic consideration in selecting 

 a policy alternative is that the cost per AUM 

 should remain near current levels. Higher costs 

 of forest-range grazing would result in substi- 

 tution by resources and products, and it would 

 be necessary, therefore, to establish new and 

 lower demand levels that reflect this substitu- 

 tion. 



Targets are specified for the total forest- 

 range environment. Relationships among own- 

 erships in the study are based upon competitive 

 advantages to produce AUM's at least cost. 

 Therefore, targets are not specified by land 

 ownership. The same principles apply to re- 

 gional targets. FRES procedures made it pos- 

 sible to select ecosystems and resource units 

 for producing AUM's according to their com- 

 parative cost advantage. 



There is no valid basis for estimating de- 

 mand on a regional basis. Regions are not self- 

 supplying. A single nationwide market is 

 served competitively by all regions. The market 

 system provides the interchange of supply and 

 demand among regions. A set of regional out- 

 put targets can be derived only by simulta- 

 neously considering national demand, regional 

 supply potentials, costs of production and 

 transportation, and projected market prices. 



NONGRAZING VALUES 



Although livestock grazing was emphasized, 

 associated resources and their uses were also 

 considered because these uses interact with 

 livestock grazing over much of the forest-range 

 environment. Extensive reliance was placed on 

 the many studies of nongrazing outputs for 

 projections of those needs. 



FOREST-RANGE 



GRAZING 



REQUIREMENTS 



1970 



1980 



2000 



Figure 29. 



47 



