INVESTMENT COSTS-1970 AND SELECTED ALTERNATIVES 

 lO.O I — 



1970 C NOW POLICY 



alternatives 



FiGtJRE 44. 



minimum of impact on the other variables. 



The initial least-cost alternatives (numbered 

 1, 2, and 20) primarily served the purpose of 

 identifying the extremes to be anticipated if 

 changes could and would occur on the basis of 

 investment costs alone. These alternatives also 

 provide some perspective by which subsequent 

 programs can be evaluated. 



ALTERNATIVE 1 



Least-cost 



Minimum output required: 223 million 



animal unit months. 

 Added Constraints: none. 



In this least-cost alternative, AUM produc- 

 tion was set near the 1970 output of 213 mil- 

 lion. This alternative gave striking results 

 (table 11). Annual investment costs were dra- 

 matically reduced from the 1970 cost of $858 

 million to produce 213 million animal unit 

 months to $291 million. Cost per AUM pro- 



duced decreases to $1.31, a major decrease 

 when compared to the $4.03 per AUM in 1970. 

 This would be accomplished with major 

 changes in the location of investment in the 

 forest-range resource. 



Animal-unit-months production would be in- 

 creased in the productive group of ecosystems 

 in the Eastern Forest ecogroup. These increases 

 would be at the expense of the Western Range, 

 Western Forest and Great Plains ecosystems 

 (fig. 45). By centering production on the most 

 productive lands, only 31 percent of the forest- 

 range would be used for grazing compared to 

 69 percent used in 1970. Sixty-eight percent of 

 the AUM output would come from the Plains 

 grasslands. Maple-beech-birch, Prairie, Aspen- 

 birch and Wet grasslands ecosystems. Within 

 the Western ecosystems, Mountain grasslands, 

 Sagebrush, and Annual grasslands (fig. 46) 

 would lead in AUM production. In the Sage- 

 brush ecosystem, about 25 percent of the lands 

 would be grazed, but total land areas only under 

 intensive management, and then in strategies 

 D and E in the high productivity classes. 



National wood growth would be increased 

 moderately under this strictly least-cost alter- 

 native, with the growth affected more in some 

 ecosystems than others as grazing management 

 shifts among ecosystems to meet the least-cost 

 criteria. From the national position, products 

 other than animal unit months show several 

 favorable trends, primarily because fewer acres 

 would be grazed. The only principal detrimental 

 effects would be a disemployment in the range 

 industry, and this is particularly undesirable 

 in areas of persistent unemployment. Output 

 of quality water would increase while sediment 

 would lessen when grazing is reduced or re- 

 moved from the less productive acreage. The 

 results show that it is possible to maintain 

 AUM production nationally and maintain or 

 improve qualitative values. 



Table 11. — Area grazed, outputs, and costs in Resource Situation — 1970 

 and under Alternatives 1, 2, and 20 



Items 



Units 



Resource 



Situation- 

 1970 



Alternatives 



20 



Area grazed 



AUM's 



Herbage 



Wood growth 



Water yield 



Quality water 



Storm runoff 



Sediment 



Total investment cost 

 Cost per AUM 



Million acres 



Million 



Million tons 



Billion cubic feet 



Million acre feet 



Million acre feet 



Million inches 



Million tons 



Million dollars 



Dollars 



834.9 



213.1 



485.5 



20.5 



780.1 



706.3 



908.9 



1,658.3 



858.2 



4.03 



372.1 



222.6 



508.2 



21.3 



779.2 



773.4 



849.3 



1,441.2 



291.0 



1.31 



493.4 



461.6 



669.0 



19.4 



781.1 



743.3 



869.9 



1,448.3 



916.5 



1.99 



428.7 

 319.7 

 573.5 

 20.5 

 778.8 

 747.6 

 857.8 

 ,450.3 

 531.7 

 1.66 



76 



