meaningful cost is the cost per animal unit 

 month produced, which would decline from 

 $4.03 to $1.66. The cost per acre grazed would 

 increase, however, because the fewer acres used 

 would be managed more intensively. 



ALTERNATIVE 2 



Least-cost 



Minimum outputs required: 462 million 



animal unit months. 

 Added constraints: none. 



Analysis at this production level revealed a 

 major national cost reduction when compared 

 to the 462 million AUM Now Policy level (table 

 9). Costs dropped from $1,960 million under 

 the Now Policy resource allocation to $917 

 million. A similar decrease occurred in cost per 

 AUM. Now Policy costs of $4.25 per AUM 

 dropped to $1.99 per AUM under Alternative 2. 

 Thus, the analysis exhibits again that invest- 

 ment costs involved in producing AUM's could 

 be drastically reduced using the least cost cri- 

 terion. On the other hand, the investment costs 

 per AUM increased over the $1.31 costs of 

 Alternative 1 at 223 million AUM's. 



Production increases were centered in the 

 East (fig. 45). Oak-hickory, Longleaf -slash 

 pine, Maple-beech-birch, and Aspen-birch eco- 

 systems accounted for 76 percent of the expan- 

 sion. However, production increases also would 

 occur on the Western Range and Western For- 

 est ecogroups while decreasing in the Great 

 Plains. Under this alternative, area grazed by 

 livestock would shrink from 835 million acres 

 to 494 million acres or to 41 percent of the 

 forest- range. The major downward adjust- 

 ments in acres grazed would occur in the 

 Western Range and Western Forest ecogroups 

 where AUM production would increase. Acres 

 grazed in the Great Plains ecogroup would drop 

 slightly together with AUM production. Again 

 investigation of non-AUM output values 

 showed few changes from the present situation 

 (table 58). 



Quality water shows an increase and wood 

 growth exhibited a significant reduction from 

 the 1970 situation, with the major loss in wood 

 growth occurring in the Oak-hickory ecosystem. 



A major policy consideration under this 

 least-cost alternative is the large disinvestment 

 in facilities in parts of the West and the diffi- 

 culties it would bring to communities there that 

 are dependent on the livestock industry. While 

 the trend toward larger percentage of grazing 

 to occur in the East in the future has been 

 documented earlier in this report, the rate of 

 change implied by this alternative was not 

 substantial. 



ALTERNATIVES 10, 11, 12, 13, AND 14 



Least-cost 



Minimum outputs required: 



Alternative 10 — 223 million animal unit 



months 

 Alternative 11 — 267 million animal unit 



months 

 Alternative 12 — 334 million animal unit 



months 

 Alternative 13 — 412 million animal unit 



months 

 Alternative 14 — 461 million animal unit 



months 



Added constraints: 



AUM production in selected Eastern 

 Forest ecosystems would be held to 

 1970 levels or to small increases. Acre- 

 age in a resource unit grazed in 1970 

 could increase but not decrease. 



These five alternatives were tested to explore 

 the consequences of requiring all land now 

 grazed by domestic livestock to remain in pro- 

 duction as total grazing demand was increased. 

 This would alleviate some of the adjustment 

 problems noted in the West and East in earlier 

 alternatives. Constraints as applied would limit 

 grazing on some Eastern Forest ecosystems 

 with high potential. Shifts could occur by 

 changes in intensity of management and allow- 

 ing new lands to be grazed. 



AUM production under Alternative 10 would 

 be approximately equal to that of the Resource 

 Situation — ^1970 level of output, while Alterna- 

 tive 12 closely approximated the demanded 

 AUM level for year 2000. 



Production of animal unit months was basi- 

 cally centered in the Great Plains and Eastern 

 ecosystems. Expansion of AUM production 

 would occur in the Loblolly-shortleaf pine and 

 Eastern hardwood ecosystems, causing wood 

 growth to fall as AUM output expanded. How- 

 ever, the other outputs did not exhibit a signifi- 

 cant decrease, and in several ecosystems quality 

 water yield and sediment yield show an im- 

 provement over the 1970 situation. The eco- 

 systems in the Western Range and Western 

 Forest, under Alternative 10, would be gen- 

 erally managed under Strategy B. However, 

 there are four notable exceptions in the West. 

 Annual grasslands were at management Strat- 

 egies C to E, while the most productive Sage- 

 brush lands were placed under management 

 Strategies D and E. Mountain meadows and 

 50 percent of the most productive Mountain 

 grasslands were set under management Strat- 

 egy C. 



80 



