dollars) in 2000 — some two times that of 1977 (table 

 1.1). By 2030, this projection would reach $5,160 

 billion — some four times that of 1977. The asso- 

 ciated projection of per capita gross national prod- 

 uct in 2030 rises to $17,180 — nearly three times the 

 1977 average. 



The detailed projections of gross national product 

 by industry, prepared by the Bureau of Economic 

 Analysis, indicate that the proportion of the gross 

 national product originating in manufacturing and 

 construction activity declines slowly over the projec- 

 tion period. Transportation, trade, and other ser- 

 vices account for a slowly growing share of the total. 

 These changes are consistent with long-established 

 trends. 



Even though there is some decline in their relative 

 importance, the projected increases in manufactur- 

 ing and construction are big. This means that the 

 U.S. economy will continue to produce huge quanti- 

 ties of physical goods. In turn, large supplies of 

 energy, minerals, and other raw materials will be 

 needed to produce those goods. 



The future adequacy of supplies of raw materials, 

 and especially energy, is a matter of widespread con- 

 cern. Concern is also evident about the ways the var- 

 ious programs designed to protect or improve the 

 environment will affect the kinds of goods produced, 

 person-hour productivity, and various other factors 

 which determine the rate of growth in economic 

 activity. Of course, no one knows how things will 

 work out. Up to this time, economic activity has 

 continued to increase much as it has in the recent 

 past. Thus it appears that the economic growth 

 assumptions adopted provide an acceptable basis for 

 evaluating future demands for forest and range land 

 products, and as a partial basis for guiding man- 

 agement policies and programs during the next sev- 

 eral years. After that, and as required by the Forest 

 and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act, 

 the outlook will be reevaluated and new expecta- 

 tions on economic growth incorporated in the 1990 

 Renewable Resource Assessment. 



Disposable Personal Income 



Disposable personal income, i.e., the income avail- 

 able for spending or saving by the Nation's popula- 

 tion, has been another important determinant of the 

 demand for certain products, such as many types of 

 recreation, red meat, and various grades of paper 

 and board. It also influences household formation, 

 size of dwellings, and furniture consumption — which 

 influence the demand for lumber and other timber 

 products. 



Since 1929, disposable personal income has 

 equaled about 70 percent of the gross national prod- 

 uct. This historical and rather constant relationship 

 was assumed to continue through the projection 

 period (table 1.1). 



The resulting estimates (medium level) show per 

 capita disposable personal income rising to $12,020 

 by 2030 (1972 dollars), nearly three times the 1977 

 average. This growth means that the Nation is faced 

 not only with the task of meeting the resource 

 demands of an additional 81 million people, but also 

 the demands of 300 milUon people with much greater 

 purchasing power than today's population. 



Institutional and Technological Change 



In the past, institutional and technological changes 

 have substantially influenced use of renewable re- 

 sources. Increasing urbanization, for example, has 

 led to increased demand for some types of outdoor 

 recreation and been an important source of the 

 intensifying concern about the environment. It has 

 also caused important shifts in the use of raw mate- 

 rials, including the partial displacement of timber 

 products by steel, concrete, and other materials suit- 

 able for use in large urban structures. 



Technological changes have also affected the de- 

 mand for certain resources. For example, the devel- 

 opment of freeze-dried foods and camping equip- 

 ment has been important in the rapid growth in the 

 recreational use of wilderness and backcountry 

 areas. The development of economical water- 

 resistant adhesives for exterior grades of plywood 

 led to huge increases in plywood use, and was a 

 major factor in holding down the consumption of 

 lumber for roughly two decades. Similarly, new tech- 

 nology has led to large increases of hardwood lum- 

 ber in pallets and of panel products such as hard- 

 board and particleboard in a wide variety of end 

 uses. On the other hand, recent developments in the 

 pulp industry have substantially reduced the amount 

 of water required to produce a ton of wood pulp. 

 Innovations in the metals and plastics industries 

 have resulted in displacement of lumber and ply- 

 wood in such products as furniture and containers. 



At any time, potential institutional and techno- 

 logical changes on the horizon could affect the de- 

 mand for renewable resources. But the nature and 

 effect of many of these potential changes are similar 

 to those that have taken place in the past and that 

 are accounted for in the use of historical data in 

 preparing the projections. 



A recent development not adequately reflected in 

 the historical data base is the growing constraints on 



