Gross National Product 



In recent decades, changes in the consumption of 

 most forest and range land products have been 

 closely associated with changes in the Nation's gross 

 national product. 



Between 1929 and 1977, the gross national prod- 

 uct, measured in constant 1972 dollars, increased 

 more than four times — rising at an average annual 

 rate of 3.1 percent (table 1.1, fig. 1.2). Annual 

 changes have fluctuated widely, from as much as 

 + 16.0 percent to -14.7 percent. The highest sustained 

 rate of growth in gross national product occurred in 

 the 1960's, when it averaged 4.3 percent per year. 



The wide fluctuations in annual rates of growth in 

 the gross national product have reflected factors 

 such as differences in the rates of change in labor 

 force, rates of unemployment, hours worked per 

 year, and productivity. These factors will presuma- 

 bly continue to cause fluctuations in the years ahead. 

 But for this Assessment, only trends in growth were 

 considered, and projections were based on the fol- 

 lowing assumed rates of increase: 



(Percent) 



Period 



Low Medium 



High 



1977-89 



3.2 



3.7 



4.2 



1990-99 



2.2 



2.7 



3.2 



2000-09 



2.0 



2.5 



3.0 



2010-19 



1.5 



2.0 



2.5 



2020-29 



1.6 



2.1 



2.6 



The assumed medium rates for the decades be- 

 yond the 1970's are based upon projections of the 

 Bureau of Economic Analysis.* These in turn are 

 partly based upon the medium projections of popu- 

 lation and the associated projections of labor force 

 and hours worked per year. The low and high rates 

 are Forest Service assumptions which are chosen to 

 display a range over which growth rates are likely to 

 vary. 



The medium assumed rate of growth would result 

 in a gross national product of $2,690 billion (1972 



''U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

 Unpublished data. 1979. 



Figure 1.2 



Gross National Product 1929-77, with Projections to 2030 



Billions of 1972 Dollars 

 10,000 

 8,000 



6,000 



4,000 

 2,000 



1,000 

 800 



600 

 400 



200 1- 



100 



Medium 





Low 



Mill 



1930 



1950 



1970 



1990 



2010 



2030 



