Figure 1.1 



Population 1929-77, with Projections to 2030 



Mil. People 



400 



....-"High 



300 



200 



:::^^::. ^ 



Medium 



3 ■ 



Low 



100 



OL 



II I II 



1930 



1950 



1970 



1990 



2010 



2030 



in population trends among the States and regions. 

 In general, the most rapid growth will be in the 

 South and on the Pacific Coast. Rapid growth is 

 also likely in some areas in the Rocky Mountains. 

 The major population concentrations, however, will 

 be much as they are today in the North Central 

 region and in the regions along the Atlantic and 

 Pacific Coasts. 



The age distribution of the population is another 

 significant factor in estimating demands for many 

 renewable resource products, especially for outdoor 

 recreation. The Bureau of the Census projections of 

 age classes associated with the population projec- 

 tions shown in table 1.1 have been used in this study. 

 These projections indicate a substantial increase dur- 

 ing most of the projection period in the number and 

 proportion of people in the middle age classes — the 

 classes that have the highest income levels and the 

 largest demands for goods and services. 



Population is also important as a determinant of 

 the labor force, which in turn is a major determinant 

 of the gross national product. The labor force asso- 

 ciated with the medium population projection is 

 expected to grow somewhat more rapidly than total 

 population during most of the projection period. 



This mostly reflects increased female participation in 

 the labor force — which is associated with the rela- 

 tively low fertility rates underlying the medium pro- 

 jection. ^ The age structure is also important, how- 

 ever, and changes in the distribution by age classes 

 are expected to result in a fairly sharp decline in the 

 rate of growth in the labor force after 2010. 



In addition to the size of the labor force, the aver- 

 age number of hours worked per year has a substan- 

 tial impact on the gross national product and on 

 demand for most kinds of outdoor recreation. His- 

 torical trends in the hours worked per year show a 

 slow decline that is projected to continue through 

 2030. Although the decline is slow, the average 

 number of hours worked per year in 2030 is pro- 

 jected to be some 317 hours below the 1975 average, 

 the equivalent of about eight 40-hour weeks. 



'The alternative assumptions of fertility rates underlying the 

 low and high population projections result in substantial differ- 

 ences in the rate of growth in the labor force. The highest rates of 

 growth would be associated with the low population projection 

 because, with the associated low fertility rates, more females 

 would be free to join the labor force. Conversely, the lowest rate 

 of growth in the labor force would be with the high population 

 projection and the associated high fertility rates. 



