Highlights 



Most decisions on the management and use of the 

 Nation's forest and range lands and associated waters 

 have long-term impacts on the output of forest, 

 range, and water products; in a broader sense of the 

 society, the economy, and the natural environment. 

 The purpose of this Assessment is to provide a factual 

 and analytical basis for making these decisions. Thus, 

 and as directed by Congress, this Assessment is pri- 

 marily concerned with prospective trends in demands 

 and supplies of forest, range, and water products; the 

 economic, social, and environmental implications of 

 these trends, the forest and range land and water 

 base; and the opportunities to manage and use this 

 resource base in ways which will enhance the quality 

 of life for present and future generations. 



An Assessment of this kind must be based on a 

 series of assumptions on the basic determinants of 

 demand and supply, such as growth in population, 

 economic activity, and income; technological and 

 institutional changes; energy costs; capital avail- 

 ability; and investments in forest, range, and water 

 management, utilization, assistance, and research 

 programs. 



In making assumptions about these basic deter- 

 minants, it is recognized the longrun course of events 

 may be quite different from what is assumed here.' 

 However, trends in these determinants are the result 

 of massive economic, social, and political forces 

 which are not easily or quickly changed. Barring 

 major catastrophes, such as a world war, such trends 

 are likely to continue over a considerable time. Thus, 

 it is reasonably certain that the given basic assump- 

 tions provide a realistic basis for preparing an 

 Assessment for use in developing and guiding renew- 

 able resource policies and programs in the 1980's. 

 Near the end of that decade, and as required by the 

 Renewable Resources Planning Act, another Assess- 

 ment will be prepared. At that time, the basic assump- 

 tions will be reevaluated and new expectations incor- 

 porated in the Assessment which will guide Forest 

 Service policies and programs in the 1990''s. 



' The course of events in the short run can also vary from that 

 assumed. However, the variation which could be reasonably 

 expected is not likely to have major impacts on most projections. 

 For example, if the rate of increase in the gross national product in 

 the 1977-90 years continued during the last 5 years at the average 

 rate of 2.8 percent instead of the assumed rate of 3.7 percent, the 

 demand for outdoor recreation in 1990 would only be reduced 1 

 percent below the medium projected level. There would be bigger 

 reductions in the demand for most timber products, about 5 per- 

 cent for lumber and plywood. But the reductions would not be 

 large enough to significantly change the basic timber demand- 

 supply outlook or the projected increases in timber prices. 



(1) Substantial growth is anticipated in 

 population, economic activity, 

 and income 



In the five decades since the late 1920's, the popula- 

 tion of the United States has increased by about 97 

 million people, to the 1979 level of 220 million. The 

 most recent projections of the Bureau of the Census 

 indicated that population is likely to continue to grow 

 fairly rapidly during the next five decades. The Cen- 

 sus Series II projection — the medium projection of 

 this report — shows population rising by another 80 

 million to 300 million. In line with recent trends, 

 however, the annual rate of growth will decline from 

 about 1 percent in the late 1960's and early 1970's to 

 0.3 percent in the decade 2020-2029. 



Between 1929 and 1978, the gross national product, 

 measured in constant 1972 dollars, increased more 

 than four times to S 1,386 billion. Projections pre- 

 pared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate a 

 gross national product of $2,690 billion (1972 dollars) 

 in 2000 — nearly twice that of 1978. By 2030, it would 

 amount to $5,160 billion — some 3.7 times that of 

 1978. The associated projection of per capita gross 

 national product in 2030 would rise to $17,180 — 

 nearly triple the 1978 average. 



Disposable personal income, i.e., the income avail- 

 able for spending by the Nation's population, is pro- 

 jected to grow from about $960 billion in 1978 to 

 $3,610 billion (1972 dollars) in 2030. 



Per capita disposable income is projected to rise to 

 $12,020 in 2030, some 2.7 times the 1978 average. 

 This growth would mean that the Nation is faced not 

 only with the task of meeting the resource demands of 

 an additional 80 million people, but the demands of 

 300 million people with much greater purchasing 

 power than today's population. 



(2) Consumption of forest and range land 

 products has been rising rapidly 



In response to past increases in populations, eco- 

 nomic activity, and income, the consumption or use 

 of nearly all products of forest and range lands, and 

 associated inland waters, has risen rapidly. For 

 example, the number of camping households has 

 roughly quadrupled since the early 1960's and now 

 totals around 15 million. Timber consumption has 

 increased from a level of around 11.5 billion cubic 

 feet to 13.7 billion cubic feet in 1977. 



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