Magazine's^ estimates that nearly 0.6 million new 

 boats were purchased in 1977. Estimates of canoe 

 sales (excluding kayaks), nationwide, rose from 

 35,000 in 1966, to 82,000 in 1977. Furthermore, in- 

 creasing memberships in river-related organizations, 

 sponsored river events, and river-oriented magazine 

 circulation all point to growing water-based recrea- 

 tional activity. Memberships in the American Canoe 

 Association climbed from 1 ,000 in 1965, to over 5,000 

 by 1976. The number of Sierra Club river outings has 

 more than doubled since 1969. Circulation of Canoe 

 Magazine, which began in 1973 with 5,000 subscrib- 

 ers, had increased to over 30,000 in 1977. 



Similarly participation increases have been re- 

 ported for both developed and dispersed land activi- 

 ties. For instance, more than 39 million recreation 

 visitor days were spent in National Forest camp- 

 grounds in 1977, representing a 29 percent increase 

 over the last decade. Similar trends have been 

 reported by Kampgrounds of America and Nielsen in 

 their national participation surveys.* A specific indi- 

 cator of the expanding interest and participation in 

 dispersed land recreation is the growth of the use of 

 National Forest trails for hiking, which grew from 5.8 

 million recreation visitor days in 1975, to 6.4 million 

 in 1977. The Appalachian National Scenic Trail, in 

 particular, experienced a 35 percent increase in 

 recreation use between 1974 and 1976. 



As participation has grown rapidly, so have 

 expenditures for outdoor recreation. Estimates of 

 total expenditures for the leisure and recreation 

 market vary depending on the breadth of the cate- 

 gories of goods and services included. The Depart- 

 ment of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis 

 reports a figure for direct recreation expenditures of 

 almost S93.2 billion in 1977. or 7.0 percent of total 

 personal consumption expenditures.^ These expendi- 

 tures, which do not include significant indirect 

 expenditures associated with recreational participa- 

 tion, such as travel costs and licenses, represent an 

 increase of nearly S48 billion, or 110 percent since 

 1970. 



Other estimates of direct recreational expenditures 

 are even higher. According to an industry analyst 

 with the Department of Commerce's Office of Con- 

 sumer Goods and Services, S160 billion was spent in 

 1977 on recreational equipment, sporting goods. 



3 Personal communication (P. Glauckman, Boating Industry 

 Magazine staff. Aug. 1979). 



■* Kampgrounds of America. 1976 camper survey. Billings. Mont. 

 1976; and A. C. Nielsen Company. The boom in leisure — Where. 

 U.S. News and World Report, May 23, 1977. 



5 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic .Analysis. 

 Survey of current business, July, 1978. Washington, D.C. 64 p. 

 1978. 



admissions and dues, and $60.2 billion on vacations 

 and trips in the United States.^'' The $160.2 billion 

 represents in increase of 9.2 percent over the office's 

 1976 figure of $146.5 billion and a 125 percent 

 increase over the 1967 spending levels. 



Outdoor Recreation Demand 



Traditionally, outdoor recreation has been pre- 

 dominantly a public good, in that market values have 

 been largely nonexistent for many outputs of outdoor 

 recreation. The last few decades, however, have seen 

 greater involvement of the private sector in providing 

 outdoor recreational activities. Increasingly, senti- 

 ment in the public sector has favored leaving the 

 development of more capital-intensive, convenience- 

 oriented facilities to the private sector. Growing 

 emphasis on the complementary nature of public and 

 private supplies of outdoor recreation has contrib- 

 uted to the expansion of the private sector's role in 

 meeting recreation demand. 



The principal outdoor recreational activities now 

 commonly provided through the private sector are 

 those requiring highly developed areas such as 

 marinas, campgrounds, and skiing facilities (both 

 downhill and cross-country). Private enterprise also 

 makes a significant contribution to the supply of 

 recreational facilities and services on public lands 

 through concessionaire and outfitter operations. 

 Goods and services provided by such enterprises 

 include food and lodging and various types of such 

 guided trips as horseback riding, fishing, and 

 river-rafting. 



Despite the existence of markets for some outdoor 

 recreation services, outdoor recreation on forest and 

 range lands remains predominantly a nonmarket 

 good. To provide long term estimates, outdoor 

 recreation "demand" is assessed in this chapter in 

 terms of projected participation levels. The projec- 

 tions presented are the expected number of partici- 

 pants in various activities as an index of the future 

 quantities demanded.^ 



''Owne, Elizabeth. The magnitude and general characteristics of 

 the recreation industry. Speech presented at the Oklahoma Recrea- 

 tion and Tourism Conference. Oklahoma City, Okla. Feb. 22, 

 1978. 



' Browth, Irwin and Associates. Sporting goods markets in 1979. 

 National Sporting Goods Association, Chicago, 111. 1979. 



8 Because of the lack of reliable national trend data on participa- 

 tion in most outdoor recreation activities, estimates were devel- 

 oped using a cross-sectional regression analysis of the 1977 Out- 

 door Recreation Survey. Equations were developed which relate a 

 set of explanatory variables to the probability that the average 

 American will participate in a given activity and these equations 

 were used to project participation through time with prices and 

 quantities supplied determined external to the model. For details 

 of procedures used, see John G. Hof. "Projection and evaluation of 

 outdoor recreation use of forest lands." Colorado State University, 

 PhD. Thesis. 209 p. 1979. 



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