Determinants of demand for outdoor recreation — 

 Growth in population and income of the magnitudes 

 assumed in the assessment will obviously have an 

 upward influence on the future participation in out- 

 door recreation activities. In addition, a number of 

 other factors will likely influence future participation 

 levels, particularly in such activities as downhill ski- 

 ing, sightseeing, and camping. Based on information 

 for the Office of Consumer Goods and Service Indus- 

 tries, Americans are increasingly enjoying their afflu- 

 ence in the form of more leisure.^ Individual workers 

 received an average of 16 days vacation annually, the 

 highest average in history. Leisure also increased for 

 all workers measured in the period 1965-1975, regard- 

 less of whether the individual was male or female, 

 married or single."' For instance, working married 

 men increased their leisure time from 33.7 to 36.1 

 hours each week. Similarly, employed married 

 women increased their weekly leisure from 26.7 hours 

 in 1965, to 31.7 hours in 1975. 



Increasing participation by women in outdoor rec- 

 reational activities should also continue to affect total 

 outdoor recreational participation. As early as a 

 decade ago, sports and outdoor recreational activi- 

 ties, especially the active ones, were almost entirely 

 male-oriented. However, the interest of women in 

 exercise and outdoor activities is growing rapidly. In 

 the 1971-1975 period, the National Federation of 

 State High School Associations found dramatic 

 increases in the numbers of women participating in 

 golf, skiing, and tennis competitions." Increasing 

 numbers of women are single, lack family obliga- 

 tions, and have incomes. Such factors have contrib- 

 uted to more than doubling participation by women 

 since 1970 in such activities as cross-country skiing, 

 fishing, hunting, and scuba diving. Nonetheless, par- 

 ticipations rates for women in outdoor recreational 

 activities can still increase substantially before they 

 equal rates for men. 



Some factors, however, are expected to reduce the 

 rate of growth in participation. One influence 

 expected to dampen future participation, especially 

 for strenuous activities such as backpacking, water 

 skiing, and primitive camping, is the general aging of 

 the population. America's population is growing sig- 

 nificantly older. Whereas, the median age was 29.4 in 

 1977, in 1990 it is projected to be 32.8, and by 2030, it 



' Owen, E. The growth of leisure markets and its impact on the 

 U.S. economy. The Office of Consumer Goods and Services Indus- 

 tries, U.S. Department of Commerce. 1978. (In process). 



'" Robinson, J. Change in Americans' use of time: 1965-1975, A 

 Progress Report, Communication Research Center, Cleveland 

 State University. 1977. 



' I A. C. Nielsen Survey, National Tennis Foundation. Comes the 

 revolution. Time. Jul. 26, 1978. 



is expected to reach 39.9. Since older individuals tend 

 to participate less in strenuous activities and to be 

 more selective in the choice of activities in general, 

 participation rates are expected to fall with age. 



Perhaps a major factor contributing to the phe- 

 nomenon, beyond the normal aging process, has been 

 the physical inactivity of many Americans; 43 percent 

 of all American adults, according to a recent poll, 

 never exercise. '^ However, this situation may be 

 changing. It is estimated that over 6 million Ameri- 

 cans, including the President, have started running or 

 jogging in the 3-year period from 1975-1978, and 

 organized exercise programs appear to be growing in 

 popularity. 



Another factor which may dampen outdoor recrea- 

 tional participation is rising energy costs and the pos- 

 sibility of future increases in participation fees — on 

 both public and private recreational areas. Inexpen- 

 sive or free recreation opportunities have been a key 

 factor in the growth in outdoor recreation participa- 

 tion. Although recreation participation has been rela- 

 tively insensitive to cost changes in the past,'^ future 

 increases in travel costs, caused by rising energy 

 prices and potential fee increases, may significantly 

 affect demands — especially where long-distance 

 travel is involved. 



National projections of demand — Projected par- 

 ticipation levels based on the above considerations 

 and the assumed increases in population, economic 

 activity, and income used in this study are shown in 

 table 3.2. In general, the snow and ice activities show 

 the most pronounced increases in participation. 

 While there are some indications that the growth 

 rates of downhill skiing and snowmobiling have 

 slowed from the rates experienced in the 1960's and 

 early 1970's, participation in these and other snow 

 and ice activities is projected to increase 140 percent 

 by 2030. Downhill skiing and cross-country skiing 

 show some of the largest increases among all 

 activities. 



Participation for water activities is also projected 

 to increase fairly rapidly, with sailing and canoeing 

 showing large growth. It is anticipated that water 

 activities, as a group, will increase 106 percent by 

 2030. Water activities attract a broad cross-section of 

 the population, although regional differences in par- 

 ticipation do exist for some activities. People living in 

 the North are more likely to participate in canoeing 

 and sailing, while those located in the South, Pacific 



12 The Fitness Mania. U.S. News and World Report. Feb. 27, 

 1978. 



'^U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Admin- 

 istration. Recreational travel impacts. Washington, D.C. 171 p. 

 1978. 



67 



