Coast, and Rocky Mountain and Great Plains States 

 are more frequent participants in motor boating and 

 water skiing. 



Projections for land activities also suggest that par- 

 ticipation will continue to increase by 61 percent 

 (table 3.2, fig. 3.1). However, except for developed 

 and dispersed camping, which are projected to in- 

 crease more than those for several water and snow and 

 ice activities, comparative increases in participation 

 in land activities tend to be modest. Nonetheless, the 

 feelings of independence and individuality, adventure, 

 and self-sufficiency, which many land activities can 

 provide, should ensure their continuing popularity. 



The projections are sensitive in the long run to 

 changes in such variables as population levels, eco- 

 nomic activity, and income. For instance, under the 

 low-level assumptions made with respect to these 

 determinants, developed camping is projected to 

 increase only 81 percent by 2030; under the high level 

 assumptions, it is expected to increase 269 percent 

 (table 3.2). However, in the short run, the projections 

 are rather insensitive to assumed changes in popula- 

 tion and income. For example, if the rate of increase 

 in the gross national product in the 1977-90 years 

 were reduced by 1.0 percent, the medium projected 

 demand for outdoor recreation in 1990 would only be 

 reduced by about 2 percent. 



Regional projections of demand — Projections of 

 participation in outdoor recreation vary widely from 

 region to region (table 3.3). The projections for land 

 activities indicate large increases in participation in 

 the South and Pacific Southwest, with more modest 

 increases in the Northeast and North Central regions. 

 For snow activities, most regions in the North and 

 West exhibit increases, especially the Pacific South- 

 west region. The increase in participation in water 

 activities, by comparison, is more even across the dif- 

 ferent regions. 



Two key factors account for much of the variation 

 among regions. One important component is the 

 regional characteristics of the forest and range 

 resource. For instance, Rocky Mountain States have 

 terrain and climate for downhill skiing superior to 

 that in many other States. A second factor is the basic 

 assumption that the population will continue to 

 migrate to the sunbelt. This migration contributes to 

 comparative increases in participation for the Pacific 

 Southwest, southern Rocky Mountains, and south- 

 ern States. For example, the Phoenix-Tucson area in 

 Arizona and the Front Range area in Colorado, 

 which stretches from Fort Collins in the north to 

 Pueblo in the south, are expected to grow at rates 

 substantially above national levels. 



Figure 3.1 



Projections of Demand for 

 Outdoor Recreation 



Demand Index (1977 Demand Level = 100) 

 100 200 300 400 



Sailing 



Downhill 

 Skiing 



Cross Country 

 Skiing 



Developed 

 Camping 



Ice 

 Skating 



Canoeing 



Sledding 



Other 

 Boating 



Dispersed 

 Camping 



Swimming 

 Outdoors 



Snowmobiling 



Water 

 Skiing 



Horseback 

 Riding 



Picnicking 

 Sightseeing 



Hiking 



Nature ■ 

 Study \ 



Pleasure p 

 Driving 



Driving \ 

 Off-Road 

 Vehicles 



Projected 

 Increase by 

 1990 



D 



Projected 

 Increase by 

 2030 



68 



