Figure 5.6 



Grazing by Kind of Livestock, 1965-1978 



Mil. Animal Unit Months 

 1200 r- 



1000 



800 



600 



400 



200 



Total Grazing 



Linear Trend of Total Grazing 



Beef Cattle 



Dairy 

 Sheep and Goats 



Horses and Mules 



Cattle 



Feed 



Lots 



1965 



1970 



1975 



1980 



and specific indications of demand for range grazing 

 were developed.^'' 



3" The projections and the associated analyses were derived from 

 the National Interregional Agricultural Projections (NIRAP) Sys- 

 tem, as developed and used by the Economics, Statistics, and 

 Cooperatives Service (ESCS) of the United States Department of 

 Agriculture. Disposable income is assumed to be a function of 

 population and economic activities. Per capita consumptions of 

 beef, veal, and lamb are expressed as a function of per capita 

 disposable income; the trends in consumptions are nonlinear. The 

 magnitudes of income elasticity used in the model for beef and 

 lamb are 0.66 and 1.15 respectively. This income elasticity for beef 

 and veal is adjusted downward as income increases. 



For additional discussion of the NIRAP System, see the 

 following: 



Allen, George, Greg Gage, Larry Otto, Gerald Plato, and 

 Reuben Weisz. General user's manual for the goal programing 

 algorithm. Working paper for the Commodity Economics Division 

 of the Economic Research Service and the Natural Resource Eco- 

 nomics Division of the Economic Research Service (now part of 

 Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service), U.S. Depart- 

 ment of Agriculture, August 1977. 



Liu, Chun-Ian. Statistical analysis of the demand for feed by 

 kind of livestock. Manuscript in review process. 1978. 



Liu, Chun-Ian, et al., 1978, op cii. 



Yeh, Chung J. Prices, farm outputs, and income projection 

 under alternative assumed demand and supply conditions. Am. 

 Jour, of Agri. Econ. 58(4): November 1976. 



Projected Demand for Meat 



Per capita consumption of beef and veal increased 

 from 91 pounds (carcass weight) in 1960 to 133 

 pounds in 1976 (table 5.10). Consumption of beef and 

 veal is expected to increase to 148 pounds (medium 

 projection level) by 2030. Consumption of lamb and 

 mutton decreased from nearly 5 pounds in 1960 to 2 

 pounds per capita in 1976. The downward trend is 

 also expected to continue bringing per capita con- 

 sumption of lamb and mutton to less than 1 pound by 

 2030.35 The increasing population and the per capita 

 consumption of beef lead to substantial increases in 

 the projected beef and veal production. On the other 

 hand, the decline in per capita consumption of lamb 

 and mutton is sufficiently great to result in an overall 

 decline in the production of lamb and mutton in spite 

 of the higher population levels (table 5.11). 



^5 The decrease in per capita consumption of lamb and mutton is 

 also a result of decline in sheep production due to increased cost 

 related to predator losses, shortage of labor, and other factors. 



176 



