Table SAO — Historical consumption and pro- 

 jected demand for beef and veal and lamb and 

 mutton in the United States for selected years 



(Pounds per capita) 



Historical consumption 



Kinds of meat 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1976 



Beef and veal 

 Lamb and mutton 



91 

 5 



105 

 4 



117 

 3 



133 

 2 



Projected demand 



Kinds 

 of meat 



Projec- 

 tion 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



Beef 

 and veal 



Low 



Medium 



High 



138 

 135 

 134 



142 

 140 

 139 



146 

 144 

 141 



148 

 145 

 138 



153 

 148 

 137 



Lamb 



and mutton 



Low 



f^edlum 



High 



2 

 2 

 2 



1 

 1 

 1 



1 

 1 



• 



• 



■Less than 1 pound 



Table 5.11 —Historical and projected produc- 

 tion of beef and veal and lamb and mutton 

 in the United States for selected years 



(Million pounds carcass weight) 

 Historical production 



Kinds of meat 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1976 



Beef and veal 

 Lamb and mutton 



15,862 

 768 



19,747 

 685 



22,273 

 551 



26,822 

 371 



Projected production 



Kinds 

 of meat 



Projec- 

 tion 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



Beef 



and 



veal 



Low 



Medium 



High 



30,318 

 30,714 

 31,934 



32,360 

 33,789 

 36,426 



33,791 

 36,500 

 40,888 



34,363 

 38,432 

 44,774 



34,882 

 40,488 

 48,949 



Lamb 



and 



mutton 



Low 



Medium 



High 



316 

 318 

 333 



271 

 275 

 294 



228 

 234 

 258 



189 

 200 

 227 



157 

 169 

 197 



In the high level projection, per capita consump- 

 tion of beef and veal is lower than in the medium 

 projection. This is because, in this level, the rate of 

 population increase is predicted to be larger than the 

 rate of increase of disposable income. Therefore, per 

 capita disposable income will decrease. As per capita 

 disposable income goes down, per capita consump- 

 tion of beef will also go down. In addition, the larger 

 population will be competing for beef produced from 

 a limited resource base. 



All three projection levels resuh in significant 

 increases in the total demand for beef. By 2030, the 

 domestic production of beef is projected to increase 

 by 30, 51, and 82 percent for the low, medium, and 

 high projection levels, respectively (table 5.11). 



Projected Demand for Livestock Feeds 



Projected increase in demands for beef will result in 

 increased demand for all types of livestock feed. If 

 additional beef production is to be achieved, feed 

 supplies must be expanded. 



Feed/ livestock ratio. — Livestock convert rough- 

 ages, feed, and cereal grains into protein, vitamins, 

 and other nutrients required and consumed by man- 

 kind. This conversion process is measured by the 

 feed/ livestock conversion ratio. The ratio compares 

 the total quantity of feeds consumed by all kinds of 

 Hvestock to the total live weight of those livestock 

 when slaughtered. Thus, the ratio measures all feed, 

 including waste or other losses, that are necessary to 

 deUver a pound of live weight animal. Improvements 

 in such things as animal disease control, nutritional 

 knowledge, improved handling, and storage of feeds 

 all contribute to an improved feed/ livestock ratio. 

 The higher the ratio, the more feed is necessary to 

 produce a pound of livestock weight. ^^ Management 

 and research efforts are continually underway to 

 lower the feed conversion ratio or to improve feed 

 sources. The feed/ livestock ratio for beef animals is 

 expected to decline slowly after 1985. The conversion 

 ratio for dairy cattle and sheep should remain stable 

 or improve. The changing ratios indicate that less 

 total feed will be needed to support a constant num- 

 ber of cattle." Although the feed /livestock ratio for 

 beef is assumed to decrease, the increasing beef cattle 

 populations will offset that trend and increase the 

 importance of grazing. 



Cattle cycle. — Cattle prices and production move 

 through a continuous series of cycles, each cycle 

 completed in roughly 10 years (fig. 5.7). These cycles 

 are characterized by high prices when numbers are 

 low, followed by increased livestock numbers, then 

 high production and declining prices, and declining 

 livestock numbers. In the 1978-1979 period, prices are 

 relatively high and the cycle appears to be near the 

 low in cattle numbers. This cyclical pattern is 

 recognized in this demand analysis but the cyclical 

 pattern itself is not projected. Projection data are in 

 terms of 10-year averages around the target year. The 

 cattle cycle also explains the cyclical fluctuations in 

 the consumption of grazing (fig. 5.6). 



'^Council for Agricultural Sciences and Technology, 1975, op. 

 'I. 

 3' Liu, Chun-Ian, et. al. 1978, op. cit. 



Ill 



