Figure 5.7 



Cattle Cycles, 1930-1979 



Cattle and Calves on Farms January 1 



1930 1940 1950 



The shaded sections are periods of herd building. 



Roughage components. — Projections of the de- 

 mand for roughage^^ are made on the basis of feed 

 required to produce a given quantity of beef, sheep, 

 and mutton which will meet the projected demand for 

 meat consumption over time. Projections of rough- 

 age demand were distributed among harvested rough- 

 ages, nonrange grazing, and range grazing (fig. 5.8). 

 Under these projections and assumptions, the de- 

 mand for roughage in medium level projection would 

 increase from 1,420 million AUM's in 1976, to 1,966 

 million AUM's in year 2030. Total roughage require- 

 ments will increase by 38 percent, while harvested 

 roughage requirements will increase by 5 percent and 

 all grazing by 54 percent. Harvested roughages 

 expand at a slower rate than grazing because har- 

 vested roughages are competing for the use of the 

 same land needed to produce food and feed grains. 



3* For the analysis of this report, hvestock feeds are grouped into 

 two main categories — concentrates and roughage. Concentrates 

 are grains and feed supplements. Roughage is harvested roughage 

 (hay, silage, sugar beet pulp, etc.) and grazing. Grazing is sub- 

 divided into two groups — range and nonrange. Nonrange grazing 

 is further broken down into three types — aftermath grazing (crop 

 residues in field), cropland pasture (5-year rotation, irrigation, 

 etc.), and other pasture (permanent pasture other than range). 



1960 



1970 



1980 



Total grazing has been divided into range and non- 

 range grazing and the projected demand is shown 

 separately (table 5.12). Under the medium level of 

 projections, range grazing increases to 300 million 

 AUM's in 2030 from 213 milHon AUM's in 1976, an 

 increase of 41 percent. During the same period, 1976 

 to 2030, nonrange grazing is projected to increase by 

 57 percent. Total grazing (range and nonrange) of 

 1,288 million AUM's in 1990 and 1,501 million 

 AUM's in 2030 will be required to meet the demands 

 for beef and other grazing livestock products given 

 the assumptions of the medium projections. 



The projections of expanding grazing requirements 

 are supported by analysis of the historical changes 

 and trends in grazing by the various kinds of livestock 

 (fig. 5.9). Total grazing use shows a downward trend 

 during 1965-1978 because the decrease in grazing by 

 dairy cows, sheep, and horses more than offsets the 

 increase in beef cattle grazing during that period. 

 However, the trends in demands for grazing by dairy 

 cattle, sheep, and horses are expected to stabilize by 

 1985 and remain steady through 2035. ^^ Demands for 

 beef cattle grazing (the major determinant of grazing 

 demand) will continue to rise. As a result, the trend in 



178 



