Figure 5.8 



Current and Projected Levels of Demand for Roughage Components 



Harvested Roughage 

 Non-Range Grazi.ng 

 Range Grazing 



(animal unit months) 



1805 



1830 



1903 





1966 



2251 





516 



1806 



465 



408 



1388 



1201 



1118 





1976 



2000 



2030 



demand for total range grazing is expected to bottom 

 out in the decade 1980-1990 and be upward thereafter 

 through 2030. 



Various rational explanations can be provided for 

 the projected upward trend in demand for range graz- 

 ing. Dairy production cannot be expected to continue 

 to decline and so release grazing as in the past. Even 

 though per capita consumption of milk is expected to 

 continue to fall, the expanding population will re- 

 quire a higher level of milk production; that is, more 

 dairy cattle will be needed by 2030. Therefore, only 

 very small amounts of grazing, if any, now used by 

 dairy cattle will be released in the future for beef 

 cattle use. Sheep and horse populations may have 

 reached their minimums; in fact, horse populations 

 are presently increasing. Therefore, the shifting of 

 grazing from these kinds of livestock to beef cattle use 

 as done in the past may possibly not occur in the 

 future. 



3' The magnitude of grazing use by any kind of livestock may 

 decline to any number including zero over time, but grazing cannot 

 be negative at any time. Therefore, the future grazing use trend is 

 projected by using the exponential curve fitting technique. This 

 technique restricts the magnitude of grazing to take only a positive 

 or zero number. 



Table 5 A2 — Projected demand for range and 



non-range grazing in tine United States under 



alternative projections to 2030 



(Million animal unit months-AUM's)' 



Projection 

 level 



1976 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 





Range 



Low 



Medium 



High 



213 



275 

 270 

 277 



287 

 287 

 301 



284 

 290 

 313 



282 

 295 

 329 



280 

 300 

 347 





Non-range 



Low 



Medium 



High 



763 



1,036 

 1,018 

 1,042 



1,112 

 1,111 

 1,166 



1,136 

 1,158 

 1,250 



1,130 

 1,179 

 1,317 



1,118 

 1,201 

 1,388 





All grazing 



Low 



Medium 



High 



976 



1,311 

 1,288 

 1,319 



1,399 

 1,398 

 1,467 



1,420 

 1,448 

 1,563 



1,412 

 1,474 

 1,646 



1,398 

 1,501 

 1,735 







Range a 



IS percent of all 



grazing 





All levels 



.218 



.210 



.205 



.200 



.200 



.200 



'An animal unit month is the amount of forage required by a 1,000-pound cow 

 or equivalent in 1 month. 



179 



