range ecosystems vary widely. Range includes land in 

 humid areas where current yields per acre reach 

 3 AUM's, and under intensive management, yields of 

 6 AUM's per acre are expected by 2030. 



Projected Demand 



and Supply Relationships 



Demand and Supply Comparisons 



Meeting the projected demands for range over the 

 next 50 years will require a substantial increase in 

 supply above the current level. Demand under the 

 medium projection series is estimated at 300 million 

 AUM's by 2030 (table 5.12), 87 milHon AUM's above 

 current supply (fig. 5.10). Such a deficit would result 

 in a rise in the production cost of beef and other 

 livestock products or result in a reduction in the 

 amount of beef consumed per capita because of 

 increased consumer prices for beef. Under the 

 assumptions of the high projections, demand in- 

 creases to 347 million AUM's, while the low projec- 

 tions assumptions result in a 280 million AUM 

 estimate. 



Figure 5.10 



Another focus of the demand/ supply relationship 

 is the annual variability of grazing supplies as 

 opposed to the constant need for livestock to have 

 feed. Because of the variability in growth of demand 

 and the time lag and uncertainties of range produc- 

 tion, the costs and benefits of adequate supplies ver- 

 sus supply deficits become important. If deficits are 

 to be avoided, the range grazing supply must be 

 related to the peak demands which occur with the 

 high animal numbers at the peak of the cattle cycle. 

 The development and maintenance of range grazing 

 supplies in the semiarid areas of the West are particu- 

 larly critical because of the magnitude of range graz- 

 ing's contribution to livestock production in that 

 area. The relatively long time required to modify 

 range supplies after investments are made (3 to 10 

 years may be required to achieve production in- 

 creases) also supports the need to plan for peak 

 periods. 



Optimization of Grazing 



The concept of grazing output optimization inte- 

 grates the cost of production and the value of produc- 

 tion at the margin. The optimization of grazing 

 requires the condition of equaUzation of the cost 



Comparison of Current Trend in Supply with Projected Trend In Demand for 

 Animal Unit Months of Range Grazing 



Mil. Animal Unit Months 



300 r- " ^ 



275 



250 



225 



200 



/ 



/ 



/ 



/ 



/ 



/ 



Historical Demand Supply Relationship 

 Projected Supply 

 Projected Demand 



/ 



1970 1976 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



186 



