The tropical hardwood forests are extensive and 

 have a large capacity for timber growing. Yet serious 

 problems exist which offset the capability of these 

 forests to continue to supply high-quality timber prod- 

 ucts to world markets. Much of the tropical forest 

 area is relatively inaccessible. Only 22 percent of the 

 Brazilian closed forest is considered accessible. 

 Hence, development of timber resources is slow and 

 expensive. Utilization of timber is complicated by the 

 great numbers of widely different species that often- 

 times have unknown characteristics. Such problems 

 of heterogeneity occur in all regions but are particu- 

 larly acute in Latin America. The future of tropical 

 forests in all regions is further complicated by the 

 expanding need for agricultural land to accommo- 

 date rapidly growing populations, and a lack of 

 knowledge of proper management techniques. 



Softwood timber supplies, for use in domestic mar- 

 kets or for sale in international markets, can be aug- 

 mented in three ways: (1) Intensification of timber 

 management, (2) improved utilization, and (3) ex- 

 panded harvest in currently undeveloped areas. The 

 rising prices for timber products expected in world 

 markets will provide an incentive for intensification 

 of timber management. However, the impact on 

 softwood supplies probably will be minimal for two 

 or three decades, except in unique situations where 

 old-growth inventories permit an immediate increase 

 in harvest. 



Improved utilization can have a more immediate 

 effect on supplies. The largest part of the expected 

 increase in world demands for industrial timber 

 products is for pulp and particleboard. This should 

 enhance the possibility of expanded management and 

 utilization since smaller trees, lower quality logs, and 

 manufacturing byproducts can be more easily used 

 for such products than for those manufactured 

 directly from solid wood. 



Conservation of wood fiber through expanded 

 recycling of paper and paperboard in the industrial- 

 ized countries of the world offers another possibility 

 for meeting a significant portion of growing world 

 demands for pulp products. In the United States, 

 about 19 percent of paper and paperboard is recycled 

 and in Japan, 40 percent. 



Possibilities for expanded output of softwood 

 lumber and plywood outside the United States in the 

 years immediately ahead seem to be limited to cur- 

 rently undeveloped resources in the northern parts of 

 Canada and Siberia. Both Canada and the Soviet 

 Union have indicated a desire to develop their forest 

 resources. Unused timber in both countries is under 

 government control, and hence government policies 

 — as well as trends in prices, markets, and availability 



of investment capital — will be significant factors in 

 determining how rapidly expansion of timber output 

 takes place. 



The softwood timber resources of Canada are of 

 special significance to the United States, for both 

 geographic and economic ties make Canada a pri- 

 mary timber supply region for this country. Canada is 

 the leading timber-exporting nation in the world, 

 with three-fourths of its exports going to the United 

 States. 



The 1976 Canadian timber cut of about 5.0 billion 

 cubic feet (4.6 billion softwoods) was well below the 

 calculated gross physical annual allowable cut of 9.8 

 billion cubic feet (7.3 billion softwoods). Intensifica- 

 tion of timber management and improved utilization 

 could expand these allowable cuts significantly, but 

 the ultimate potential is unknown. The present 

 unused allowable cut, for the most part, is in the 

 undeveloped northern parts of the Canadian Prov- 

 inces where utilization will involve high development 

 costs. 



Only a portion of the unused gross physical annual 

 allowable cut, about 3 billion cubic feet, was consid- 

 ered economically accessible in 1976. The rising equi- 

 librium prices projected in this analysis will help to 

 make more of the Canadian softwood resource eco- 

 nomically available and will enhance the rationale for 

 more intensive management and improved utilization 

 in the accessible areas. 



In 1976 Canada had the timber resources to 

 expand timber output. In terms of products, a recent 

 study^^ showed that the production of softwood 

 lumber could be increased to about 21 billion board 

 feet on a sustained basis, some 7.5 billion board feet 

 above output in 1973-74. If economic accessibility is 

 taken into account, the production potential would 

 decline to about 18 billion board feet. Over one-half 

 of the potential for increased Canadian softwood 

 lumber production existed in British Columbia, espe- 

 cially in the interior of the Province. 



For pulp production, the combined potential of 

 economically assessible hardwoods and softwoods 

 indicated that these reserves could support increased 

 output of 6.2 million tons. Physical reserves are 

 available to support about 10 million tons of addi- 

 tional production. 



There is, of course, a lot of uncertainty associated 

 with the above estimates. At best, they are judgments 

 based on the information available, and as such are 



^*Reed, F, L. C. and Associates Ltd. Canada's reserve timber 

 supply, prepared for the Department of Industry, Trade and 

 Commerce, Ottawa, Ontario. 1974. F. L. C. Reed and Associates 

 Ltd., Forest Management in Canada, VoL L Prepared for the 

 Forest Management Institute of the Canadian Forestry Service, 

 Ottawa, Ontario. 1977. 



219 



