subject to change as market conditions and informa- 

 tion changes. They do reflect, however, the reality 

 that the timber resource of Canada can support larger 

 harvests and, further, that the resource is not unlim- 

 ited. Since the 1950's, Canada has been able to 

 rapidly expand output of all timber products through 

 development of previously untapped resources. Fur- 

 ther expansion in this manner is likely to be increas- 

 ingly constrained in the 1980's. It seems evident that 

 expansion of production of pulp, paper, and soft- 

 wood lumber in Canada will depend more on intensi- 

 fication of timber management and improvement of 

 utilization practices than an expansion at the exten- 

 sive margins of timber reserves. 



Prospective Trends 



in U.S. Timber Product Trade 



As described above, the available data on future 

 demands in the major consuming countries and 

 regions of the world suggest continuing and rapid 

 growth for pulp and paper products. In view of the 

 competitive position of the United States in pro- 

 ducing these products, exports are likely to rise. 



Demands for solid wood products in most consum- 

 ing areas are also expected to grow although there 

 may be some decline in Japan for softwood logs and 

 lumber as housing construction drops off. The pro- 

 jected timber supply situation on the Pacific Coast 

 suggests a lessening of the U.S. comparative advan- 

 tage in old-growth logs and clear lumber of large 

 dimensions. As a result of this and the market out- 

 look in Japan, exports of logs, lumber, and plywood 

 after 1990 are expected to decline. 



Effective trade promotion in major consuming 

 areas, or action to increase timber supplies, could 

 greatly change the outlook for exports. As indicated 

 in other places in this chapter, domestic forests have 

 the potential under intensive management of meeting 

 prospective growth in domestic demands while at the 

 same time supporting large increases in exports. 



The United States will continue to be a major 

 importer of timber products. This pattern is expected 

 because of the unique nature of some products and 

 limitations on domestic timber supplies. The largest 

 increases in imports are expected in softwood lumber 

 and pulp and paper products from Canada. It also 

 seems likely that the United States will continue to 

 draw on tropical forests for hardwood plywood and 

 veneer for some time to come, in spite of the uncer- 

 tainties surrounding the long-term outlook. 



The projected export-import levels for the United 

 States in terms of roundwood equivalent are summar- 

 ized in tables 6.5 and 6.6. The data in these tables 



show that imports of timber products are likely to 

 continue to grow until 2000 and exceed exports by 

 a substantial margin through the projection period. 

 Although there is some growth in net imports to 2020, 

 it is clear that the volume of timber products avail- 

 able for use beyond 2000 will be increasingly deter- 

 mined by the domestic timber resource situation. 



Demand for Timber from 

 Domestic Forests 



Although improvements in utilization and the 

 expected increase in net imports can meet part of the 

 projected growth in demand for timber products, 

 these potentials are relatively small in comparison to 

 total growth in demand at something close to the 

 increase in prices in the period used as the projection 

 base. Thus, the United States must look to its domes- 

 tic timber resources as the best hope of meeting future 

 demands for timber products. 



Production of softwood roundwood from domestic 

 forests showed little change in the 1950's. A fairly fast 

 increase was evident in the 1960's and 1970's (table 

 6.5). Production of softwood sawtimber from U.S. 

 forests followed similar trends. In contrast, produc- 

 tion of hardwoods — roundwood and sawtimber — 

 remained about the same from 1962 through 1976 

 (table 6.6). 



The primary timber processing industries include plants manufac- 

 turing lumber, plywood, wood pulp and a wide variety of other 

 products such as pallets, containers, fence posts and utility poles. 



220 



