among the sources of softwood timber supplies by 

 geographic section and ownership. 



In total, projected softwood roundwood supplies 

 rise from 9.6 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 12.3 billion 

 cubic feet in 2030, an increase of 29 percent (table 

 6.22). The projected change in softwood sawtimber 

 supplies over the same period is from 50.0 to 55.6 

 billion board feet, a rise of 1 1 percent (table 6.23, fig. 

 6.4). 



Projected base level softwood supplies by section. 

 — Roughly equal shares of the 1976 softwood round- 

 wood supplies came from the South (45 percent) and 

 Pacific Coast (41 percent). Together they accounted 

 for 85 percent of the softwood roundwood supplies in 

 the United States. The remaining 15 percent was 

 about equally split between the North and the Rocky 

 Mountains. 



Base level softwood roundwood supplies in the 

 South are projected to rise by 47 percent by 2030, 

 from 4.2 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 6.2 billion. The 

 majority of the increase comes from the farmer and 

 other private lands. Large percentage increases also 

 are projected for the North and Rocky Mountain sec- 

 tions, but these sections continue to be relatively 

 small sources of supply. 



In contrast to the projected increases in these sec- 

 tions, the softwood roundwood supplies are projected 

 to drop in the Pacific Coast from 3.9 billion cubic feet 

 in 1976 to 3.7 billion cubic feet in 2000. This is fol- 

 lowed by a rise to 3.9 billion cubic feet in 2030. The 

 major cause of the initial decline in the Pacific Coast 

 is the inability of the forest industry lands to maintain 

 current cutting levels. The old-growth inventory in 

 this ownership class is rapidly being depleted and 

 merchantable second-growth stands cannot offset the 

 decUne in supplies from old-growth stands. At the 

 same time, supplies on the National Forest and other 

 public ownerships increase, but they are constrained 

 by evenflow and nontimber management objectives. 

 National Forest projections are further influenced by 

 expected withdrawals of commercial timberland for 

 wilderness. Supplies from the farmer and other pri- 

 vate owners in the Pacific Coast are also projected to 

 increase, which is a reversal of a 25-year downward 

 trend. The projected growth in supplies on National 

 Forests, other public lands, and farmer and other pri- 

 vate ownerships is not large enough to compensate 

 for the drop on the forest industry ownerships. 



The result of these divergent paths by section is a 

 substantial shift in the importance of the major geo- 

 graphic sections as timber producing areas. The pro- 

 jected sectional shares of the softwood roundwood 

 supplies in 2030 are 51 percent for the South and 31 

 percent for the Pacific Coast, quite different from the 

 45-41 percent shares in 1976. 



In 1976, 50 percent of the softwood sawtimber 

 came from the Pacific Coast and 36 percent from the 

 South. The projected softwood sawtimber supplies in 

 the Pacific Coast drops substantially, from 26.6 bil- 

 lion board feet in 1976 to 19.6 billion board feet in 

 2030, with much of the decline occurring by 1990. 

 Softwood sawtimber supplies in the South are pro- 

 jected to increase from 18.0 to 27.3 billion board feet 

 over the same period. By 2030, 49 percent of the soft- 

 wood sawtimber suppUes are projected to originate in 

 the South and 35 percent in the Pacific Coast. 



The young and growing pine forests of the South can support 

 ncreased harvests. 



238 



