Changes in timber supplies of these magnitudes are 

 certain to have major and long-lasting impacts on the 

 economies of the two sections. From the standpoint 

 of the Pacific Coast, it will mean closed mills and 

 reduced timber-based employment and income. The 

 impacts are likely to be particularly severe in rural 

 areas where timber is the chief source of economic 

 activity. In the South, on the other hand, it suggests 

 new timber-based economic activity and associated 

 increases in employment and income. 



Projected base level softwood supplies by owner- 

 ship. — The projected reduction in base level timber 

 supplies on the Pacific Coast is mostly the result of a 

 decline on forest industry lands. The projected 

 increase in southern supplies comes largely from 

 farmer and other private ownerships. Hence, the shift 

 among ownerships is as marked as shifts among sec- 

 tions (tables 6.24 and 6.25). 



In total. National Forest softwood roundwood 

 supplies are projected to increase, in spite of an 11 

 percent reduction in commercial timberland area and 

 the harvest ceilings imposed by the evenflow policy 

 and nontimber management objectives, from 1.9 bil- 

 lion cubic feet in 1976 to 2.8 billion cubic feet in 2030, 

 22 percent of the national total. The softwood 

 roundwood supplies from forest industry lands are 

 projected to drop from 3.4 to 3.2 billion cubic feet 

 between 1976 and 2000 and then to gradually climb to 

 3.3 billion cubic feet in 2030. This is 26 percent of the 

 projected national total compared to the 36 percent 

 contributed in 1976. The farmer and other private 

 ownerships supplies of softwood roundwood are pro- 

 jected to increase from 3.4 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 

 5.2 billion cubic feet in 2030. The share of the total 

 timber supply from these ownerships rises from 36 

 percent in 1976 to 43 percent in 2030. 



The shifts in projected base level softwood saw- 

 timber supplies among the ownerships are in the same 

 directions as for softwood roundwood but generally 

 larger. For example, the share from the farmer and 

 other ownership increases from 29 to 41 percent of 

 the total by 2030 while that on the forest industry 

 drops from 38 percent to 24 percent. 



Although the base level projections indicate that 

 supplies will increase substantially on farmer and 

 other private ownerships, mostly in the South, there 

 is uncertainty about the future responsiveness of 

 these ownerships to stumpage price and inventory 

 changes. These ownerships were quite responsive to 

 stumpage price increases between 1950 and 1974, but 

 many have nontimber management objectives which 

 could increasingly constrain harvests and raise har- 

 vesting costs. 



Even more important from the longrun standpoint 

 are the present limited investments in timber man- 

 agement. Maintaining or increasing softwood timber 

 supplies in the South requires active timber manage- 

 ment, especially the regeneration of softwood stands 

 after harvest. Recent downward trends in the area in 

 pine types in the south indicate this is not being done. 

 As a result, there is a projected decline in net annual 

 growth in the farmer and other private ownerships 

 after 2000. 



Projected base level hardwood supplies. — Hard- 

 wood timber harvests between 1952 and 1976 fluctu- 

 ated around 3.3 billion cubic feet of roundwood and 

 12 billion board feet of sawtimber. Because of higher 

 price elasticities, and the lack of any major inventory 

 constraints upon harvesting, hardwood supplies are 

 projected to increase at a faster rate than the soft- 

 wood supplies. Hardwood roundwood supplies are 

 projected to rise 2.7 times between 1976 and 2030, 

 from 3.3 to 8.9 billion cubic feet. Sawtimber supplies 

 more than double, moving up from 12.9 to 27.5 bil- 

 lion board feet. 



The hardwood timber situation has been improving rapidly and 

 further improvements are hkely. By 2030 the hardwood forests can 

 support harvests more than double those of 1976. 



242 



