Unlike softwoods, the sectional distribution of the 

 projected hardwood sawtimber inventories between 

 the North and South is almost the same in 2030 as it 

 was in 1977, each with a little less than half of the 

 total. The ownership distribution is also about the 

 same. The farmer and other ownerships continue to 

 hold about two-thirds of the hardwood sawtimber 

 inventories. 



The Qualified Outlook 



The above projections of timber supplies, net 

 annual growth, and inventories should be considered 

 only as indicative of what would occur if the assump- 

 tions on the basic determinants are realized. Many 

 factors could cause changes in the projected trends. 

 For example, more intensive management could lead 

 to higher levels of timber growth and larger inven- 

 tories. On the other hand, the levels could be lower as 

 a result of larger shifts of commercial timberland to 

 other uses, more constraints on timber management 

 associated with the protection of the environment 

 and multiple-use, or extraordinary mortality losses. 

 Increases in the use of wood for fuel of the amounts 

 being currently discussed by the people concerned 

 with energy would have major impacts on timber 

 resources and lead to a situation much different from 

 that described, and especially for hardwoods. 



Further, the projections are not intended as an 

 indicator of what might be desirable from social, eco- 

 nomic, or silvicultural standpoints — they are simply 

 indicators of what is likely to hap'pen if forests are cut 

 and managed much as they have been in the last 

 decade or so. The following analyses will show that, 

 from the societal point of view, it will be desirable to 

 change the outlook. The analyses also will describe 

 two broad scope opportunities that could have a 

 major impact on the supply outcome. First, there are 

 vast biological opportunities for increasing timber 

 supplies. A substantial part of these are economic 

 opportunities, i.e., they would yield acceptable rates 

 of return on investments. Second are opportunities to 

 extend timber supplies through improvements in utili- 

 zation including utilization of residues and wood 

 fiber, such as in treetops and limbs, that are not 

 included in timber inventories. 



Projected Timber 

 Demand-Supply Relationships 



The base level projections of timber supplies dis- 

 cussed above and those of demand discussed earlier 

 are summarized in tables 6.5 and 6.6. 



The Demand-Supply-Price 

 Outlook for Softwoods 



The base level projections of demands on domestic 

 forests for softwood roundwood — after allowances 

 for imports and exports and improvements in 

 utilization — rise from actual consumption of 9.2 bil- 

 Hon cubic feet in 1976 to 13.8 billion by 2000 and 15.7 

 bilhon by 2030 (table 6.5, fig. 6.5). The base level 

 projections of supplies of softwood roundwood from 

 U.S. forests under the assumptions specified earlier 

 show moderate increases from 9.2 billion cubic feet in 

 1976 to 11.1 billion in 2000 and 12.3 billion by 2030. 

 The outlook for softwood sawtimber is similar — 

 large increases in demand under base level assump- 

 tions and modest increases in supplies. The outlook is 

 also similar by regions (table 6.26). 



It is evident from these comparisons of the base 

 level projections of demands and supplies that a sub- 

 stantial rise in the relative prices of softwood stump- 

 age and most softwood timber products beyond the 

 levels assumed in preparing the base level projections 

 will be necessary to balance demand and supplies in 

 future decades. 



Projections of indexes of regional equilibrium 

 softwood stumpage prices^^ are summarized in table 

 6.27. These projections show softwood stumpage 

 prices rising substantially in all regions. ^^ In the 

 southern regions, stumpage prices measured in 1967 

 dollars and net of inflation or deflation, rise at an 

 annual rate of 2.5 percent per year between 1976 and 

 2030.3^ This is considerably above the rate of increase 

 in the Douglas-fir region of the Pacific Northwest 

 (1.8 percent) and that in the northern regions (1.9 

 percent). It is, however, below those in the other 



''' These are prices necessary to bring about an equilibrium 

 between the base level projections (medium level) of timber 

 demands and supplies. These prices and the associated equilibrium 

 timber demand-supply projections were developed by means of a 

 regionally disaggregated economic simulation model. For further 

 details see: .Adams, Darius M., and Richard W. Haynes. The 1980 

 softwood timber assessment market model: structure, projections, 

 and policy simulations. Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Exp. 

 Sta., Portland, Oreg. (In process). 



''The regional analysis includes assumptions about increasing 

 processing efficiency but, like the base level price projections, does 

 not include any assumptions regarding management intensification 

 which would presumably result from the higher prices. To some 

 extent, the prices projected in the last decades of the projection 

 period are probably biased upward as higher stumpage prices 

 should include management intensification that, after 2000, would 

 lead to higher levels of timber supplies and lower prices. This 

 "reiterative" or "loop" problem is addressed further in a following 

 section of this chapter. 



3' All prices are measured in 1967 dollars, thus the effects of 

 general price inflation or deflation are excluded. The increases 

 shown therefore measure change relative to the general price level 

 and to most competing materials. 



247 



