regions and especially in the Rocky Mountain section 

 where projected stumpage prices rise at an average 

 rate of 3.8 percent per year. In all regions the rates of 

 increase are largest in the first decade of the projec- 

 tion period — they progressively decline in the follow- 

 ing decades. 



The regional variations in the rates of increase are 

 caused by a number of complex forces. In general, 

 however, they reflect competition and differences in 

 regional logging, manufacturing, and transportation 



costs. They are also influenced by the trend level of 

 stumpage prices in 1976. When these 1976 prices are 

 low (as is the Rocky Mountain section), the rates of 

 growth will be much larger, even with the same dollar 

 increase, than in regions in which the base year (1976) 

 prices are high (as in the Douglas-fir region). Most of 

 the decline in the rates of price increase over the pro- 

 jection decades is due to this same relationship, i.e. as 

 prices move up, the rates of change drop, although 

 the change in dollar terms may remain the same. 



Table 6.26. — Summary of softwood timber demand on, and supply from, forests in ttie contiguous 

 States by region, 1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976 with projections (medium level demand) to 2030 



under alternative price assumptions 



(Billion cubic feet) 





Item 



1952' 



1962' 



1970' 



1976' 



Projections 



Region 



Base level price trends^ 



Equilibrium price trends^ 





1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



Northeast 



Regional 

































demand" 



0.47 



0.40 



0.43 



0.45 



0.57 



0.66 



0.71 



0.74 



0.77 



0.54 



0.60 



0.65 



0.70 



0.75 





Regional 

































supply^ 



.47 



.40 



.43 



.45 



.53 



.57 



.61 



.64 



.67 



.54 



.60 



.65 



.70 



.75 





Supply- 



















-.04 



-.09 



-.10 



-.10 



-.10 

























demand 

































balance 































North 



Regional 



.21 



.19 



.16 



.16 



.35 



.44 



.49 



.54 



.57 



.33 



.39 



.45 



.51 



.55 



Central^ 



demand" 

































Regional 



.21 



.19 



.16 



.16 



.29 



.35 



.38 



.41 



.43 



.33 



.39 



.45 



.51 



.55 





supply^ 

































Supply- 



















-.06 



-.09 



-.11 



-.13 



-.14 

























demand 

































balance 































Southeast 



Regional 

 demand" 



1.65 



1.50 



1.71 



1.79 



2.82 



3.30 



3.62 



3.73 



3.85 



2.63 



2.92 



3.22 



3.38 



3.54 





Regional 



1.65 



1.50 



1.71 



1.79 



2.27 



2.54 



2.71 



2.82 



2.90 



2.63 



2.92 



3.22 



3.38 



3.54 





supply^ 

































Supply- 



















-.55 



-.76 



-.91 



-.91 



-.95 

























demand 

































balance 































South 



Regional 



1.27 



1.11 



2.09 



2.30 



3.30 



3.83 



4.23 



4.40 



4.52 



2.97 



3.23 



3.55 



3.71 



3.83 



Central 



demand" 

































Regional 



1.27 



1.11 



2.09 



2.30 



2.64 



2.88 



3.05 



3.21 



3.31 



2.97 



3.23 



3.55 



3.71 



3.83 





supply^ 

































Supply- 



















-.66 



-.95 



-1.18 



-1.19 



-1.21 

























demand 

































balance 































Rocky 



Regional 



.42 



.62 



.86 



.75 



1.14 



1.25 



1.37 



1.44 



1.54 



1.03 



1.08 



1.17 



1.25 



1.36 



Mountain 



demand" 

































Regional 



.42 



.62 



.86 



.75 



.91 



1.01 



1.08 



1.12 



1.13 



1.03 



1.08 



1.17 



1.25 



1.36 





supply^ 

































Supply- 



















-.23 



-.24 



-.29 



-.32 



-.41 

























demand 

































balance 































See footnote at end of table. 



248 



