Figure 6.5 



Projections of Softwood Roundwood Demands and Supplies 



on Domestic Forests 



Billion Cubic Feet 

 20 I- 



15 



10 



Base Level Demand 







Equilibrium 











Base Level Supply 





 1950 



1960 



1970 



1980 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



There are significant changes in demand and sup- 

 plies associated with the projected increases in soft- 

 wood stumpage prices. Roundwood demands are 

 reduced below the amounts indicated by the base 

 level projections in all regions (table 6.26). At the 

 same time, supplies rise above the base level projec- 

 tions as private timber owners respond to higher 

 prices. Consequently, as illustrated in figure 6.5, the 

 equilibrium level falls between the base level demand 

 and supply projections. 



As a result of the increase in timber harvests asso- 

 ciated with the equilibrium projections, by the end of 

 the projection period softwood timber inventories in 

 the South and the Pacific Coast would be substan- 

 tially below those indicated for the base level projec- 

 tions shown in table 6.22. In the South, for example, 

 the inventories of softwood growing stock in 2030 

 which would result from equilibrium levels of harvest 

 are only a little over half of the projected base level 

 inventories (fig. 6.6). Declines of this size mean that 

 maintenance of the equilibrium levels of harvests for 



periods beyond the next few decades would require 

 investments in various management programs much 

 larger than assumed in the base level analysis. It also 

 suggests that without greatly expanded management 

 programs, prices in the latter part of the projection 

 period, and in the decades that follow, are likely to 

 rise at rates much above those indicated in table 6.27. 



Equilibrium price paths for the major timber prod- 

 ucts also were developed by means of the regionally 

 disaggregated economic simulation model (see foot- 

 note 37). This analysis shows softwood lumber and 

 plywood prices measured in 1967 dollars, increasing 

 at an annual rate of 1.7 and 1.4 percent, respectively. 

 The lumber price increase is generally consistent with 

 historical trends in relative lumber prices. 



Equilibrium price increases for paper and board 

 are likely to be lower than those for lumber, as in the 

 past. For example, in contrast to the projected 123 

 percent increase for softwood lumber between 1976 

 and 2030, relative prices of paper and board rise by 

 only about a third. This rise reflects the effects of 



250 



