Figure 6.6 



Projected Softwood Roundwood Inventories in the South 



Billion Cubic Feet 

 200 



100 



97.1 



84.9 



71.6 



58.2 



119.8 



152.5 

 145.4 ^ 



134.7 * \ 



Base Level 



156.1 



111.7 



116.1 



\113.6^-^^^^ 

 Equilibrium Level 103.6 



84.3 



1950 



1970 



1990 



2010 



2030 



intensified competition for timber. However, greater 

 increases in prices may be necessary in the pulp and 

 paper industry to attract the capital required to meet 

 projected demands for pulp and paper and to reflect 

 rising costs of fossil fuels and chemicals. 



The projected equilibrium stumpage price increases 

 would have widely varying impacts on the base level 

 projections of demand for the major timber products, 

 because of differences in the price elasticity of 

 demand and the importance of stumpage costs rela- 

 tive to product selling prices. The largest impact is on 

 softwood lumber demands; the equilibrium projec- 

 tions show only a small increase over the levels pre- 

 vailing in recent years and are much below the base 

 level projections. On the other hand, the demand for 

 paper, board, and pulpwood is not reduced very 

 much — the projected equilibrium levels are close to 

 the base level projections through the projection 

 years. 



The Demand-Supply-Price 

 Outlook for Hardwoods 



In the case of hardwood roundwood, projected 

 base level demands on domestic forests — after allow- 

 ances for imports and exports — rise from 2.9 billion 

 cubic feet in 1976 to 6.0 billion in 2000 and 9.4 billion 

 in 2030 (table 6.6). Projected supplies rise from 2.9 

 billion cubic feet in 1976 to 6.0 billion in 2000 and 8.9 

 billion in 2030. The supplies of hardwood roundwood 

 potentially available under the base level assumptions 

 in terms of cubic feet exceed or equal projected base 

 level demands through 2000, but fall increasingly 

 short thereafter. Demands on domestic forests for 

 hardwood sawtimber rise from about 10.8 billion 

 board feet in 1976 to 20.0 billion in 2000 and 29.7 

 billion in 2030. The projected demands are consist- 

 ently somewhat above the base level projections of 

 supplies throughout the projection period. 



251 



