Table 6.27 — Indexes of trend lever softwood stumpage prices^ in the contiguous States, by regions, 

 1952, 1962, 1970, and 1976, with projections of equilibrium prices^ to 2030. 



(Indexes of prices per thousand board feet, 

 International 114-inch log rule— 1967 = 100) 













Projected indexes of equi 



ibrium prices^ 



Region 



IQ*!? 



1962 



1970 



1976 













1 so^ 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



Northeast 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 



166.1 



185.1 



213.6 



245.3 



279.5 



North Central 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 



100.0 



154.0 



180.9 



207.3 



238.9 



279.0 



Southeast 



57.8 



83.3 



111.6 



138.9 



229.6 



280.0 



358.0 



434.6 



526.8 



South Central 



57.8 



83.3 



111.6 



138.9 



230.6 



281.6 



358,5 



434.3 



524.7 



Rocky Mountains 



58.0 



83.5 



111.5 



138.7 



473.0 



514.4 



704.1 



859.7 



1045.0 



Pacific Northwest: 





















Douglas-fir subregion 



43.8 



75.9 



118.0 



164.2 



275.0 



228.2 



287.4 



355.8 



430.3 



(Western 





















Washington and 





















western Oregon) 





















Ponderosa pine 





















subregion 



80.6 



93.1 



104.4 



113.8 



300.5 



330.6 



425.1 



500.8 



603.1 



(Eastern Washington 





















and eastern Oregon) 





















Pacific Southwest 



52.9 



80.9 



113.6 



146.5 



300.8 



334.7 



416.3 



490.2 



579.9 



' Indexes of prices on a least squares regression line fitted to time series price 

 data for the years 1950-76 



'Prices are measured in constant (1967) dollars and are net of inflation or 

 deflation, Tfiey measure price changes relative to the general price level and most 

 competing materials- 



Mndexes of the prices which would result from stumpage prices rising enough 

 to maintain an equilibrium between projected timber demands and supplies. 



These indexes were computed from stumpage price projections and the trend 

 1967 stumpage price. While convenient for displaying changes within regions 

 and the relative rates of change between regions, these indexes should not be 

 used to compare prices among regions. For example, the projected index levels 

 imply that the Rocky (\^ountain region has the highest stumpage prices relative to 

 other regions when in fact it is among those regions with the lowest stumpage 

 prices 



The outlook by regions is somewhat different from 

 the national outlook (table 6.28). Base level projected 

 demands on domestic forests rise above base level 

 supplies by 1990 in the South Central region but 

 remain somewhat below base level supplies in the 

 northern regions until after 2000. 



In general, the base level projections for hardwood 

 — both roundwood and sawtimber — show a more 

 favorable supply outlook than is the case for soft- 

 woods. It appears that supplies will be adequate in 

 the next two or three decades to meet demands for 

 most hardwood products. As a result, there may not 

 be much increase in average hardwood stumpage 

 prices in the years immediately ahead (table 6.29). 

 Beyond the next few decades, however, base level 

 demands begin to rise above base level supplies. As 

 this occurs, stumpage prices will move upward, espe- 

 cially in the South Central region, where the competi- 

 tion for the available supplies is likely to be the most 

 intense. 



This outlook will be changed if there is an increase 

 in demand for fuelwood or any other product much 

 above the projected levels. Such an increase would 

 likely fall primarily on the hardwood resource in the 

 North. A relatively small increase could significantly 

 alter the demand-supply balances in the northern 

 regions and result in rising prices in the years imme- 



diately ahead. A large increase in demand would, of 

 course, greatly intensify the competition for hard- 

 wood timber and cause rapid increases in prices. 



The immediate outlook for larger-sized hardwood 

 sawtimber of preferred species, such as white oak, 

 sweetgum, yellow birch, hard maple, walnut, and 

 black cherry, is quite different from that for the 

 smaller-sized lower-quality material. Removals of 

 such timber have been close to or above net annual 

 growth in recent decades, and continuing and large 

 increases in stumpage prices have apparently re- 

 flected this situation. These trends seem likely to 

 continue. 



Partly as a result of these kinds of increases, and 

 the smaller ones associated with the growth in 

 demand for other kinds of hardwood timber, there is 

 a substantial rise in projected prices of most hard- 

 wood timber products. These average about 1.2 per- 

 cent per year for hardwood lumber and 0.7 percent 

 per year for hardwood plywood. 



The General Price Outlook 



In view of the many uncertainties involved in pro- 

 jecting both demands and supplies, the above esti- 

 mates of prices at which demands and supplies might 

 be balanced must be regarded as general approxima- 



252 



