1967 dollars), softwood timber supplies would rise to 

 12.3 billion cubic feet in 2000, some 1 1 percent above 

 the base level projection of 11.1 billion cubic feet 

 shown in table 6.22. By 2030, with more time for 

 intensified management activities to affect the timber 

 resource, projected supplies would be 16.1 billion 

 cubic feet, 31 percent above the base level projection 

 of 12.3 billion cubic feet. In line with the location of 

 the economic opportunities shown in table 6.30. the 

 largest part of the increase in supplies resulting from 

 management intensification is in the Southeast and 

 South Central regions. 



During the early part of the projection period, soft- 

 wood stumpage prices with intensified management 

 would rise substantially, although the rates of 

 increase are below those shown in table 6.27. Later in 

 the projection period, as timber supplies increase rel- 

 ative to the equilibrium projections, stumpage prices 

 peak and then begin to decline. The peaks occur in 

 about two decades in the South and four decades in 

 the West. Softwood stumpage prices in 2030 in all 

 regions are significantly below the levels attained in 

 the preceding decades. In the southern regions, for 

 example, where the supply responses from intensified 

 management are concentrated, the index of softwood 

 stumpage prices in 2030 would be close to the trend 

 levels in 1976. 



The lower softwood stumpage prices would be 

 reflected in product prices. For example, the average 

 annual rate of increase in softwood lumber prices 

 over the projection period would be about 1.2 per- 

 cent, considerably below the 1.7 percent per year that 

 is projected without intensified management. 



The above estimates of the effects of intensified 

 management have the same limitations as the basic 

 analysis of the economic opportunities for manage- 

 ment intensification and the base level and equi- 

 librium level projections of timber supplies. They do 

 show, however, that the potential exists to greatly 

 reduce the adverse social, economic, and environ- 

 mental impacts of rising relative prices described 

 above. 



The Importance of Forest Ownership 



While there are many biological and eonomic op- 

 portunities to increase timber growth, the owners of 

 commercial timberland determine the purposes for 

 which the land will be used and the way in which it 

 will be managed. There is a broad range of objectives 

 and financial and technical capabilities among the 

 millions of owners of commercial timberland. In 

 addition, there are various legal and institutional 

 constraints and incentives that affect the way in 



which different owners manage and use their land 

 and timber resources. Together, these considerations 

 determine the extent to which the opportunities to 

 increase timber growth have been and will be 

 realized. 



There are some common characteristics among the 

 major commercial timberland ownerships. The Na- 

 tional Forests and other public ownerships must rely 

 on appropriations from Congress and other legisla- 

 tive bodies and are managed for a variety of pur- 

 poses, some of which constrain timber production. 

 Forest industry ownerships, on the other hand, are 

 used primarily to supply timber for wood-using 

 plants; and investments in timber management activi- 

 ties are strongly influenced by economic criteria. 

 Most of the farmer and other private ownerships fall 

 somewhere in between, although they cover the full 

 range from timber production only, to exclusive use 

 for recreation or other nontimber purposes. 



Of the constraints facing farmers and other private 

 owners of commercial timberland, perhaps the most 

 important relate to capital and investment incentives. 

 The available information indicates that many of the 

 farmer and other private owners lack the capital for 

 making the investments necessary for most manage- 

 ment practices. Further, such investments are not 

 attractive to many owners who do have the capital 

 because of their short planning horizons, lack of 

 knowledge about the opportunities, or the existence 

 of other investment options which they perceive to be 

 better than those in timber management. 



Farmers and other private forest owners have many different 

 objectives — they range from timber production only to exclusive 

 use for recreation or other purposes not compatible with timber 

 production. But these ownerships are the key to meeting future 

 timber demands. 



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