no major impacts on storm runoff or sediment yield. 

 Intensity of land use rises slightly on National 

 Forest and other Federal lands, but increases much 

 more significantly on Bureau of Land Management 

 lands, and State and private lands, which comprise 

 about two-thirds of the total land base in this region. 

 As a result of this increased management, total costs 

 increase. Likewise, the marginal costs for both timber 

 and range grazing rise substantially with time. 



Pacific Northwest. — In the Pacific Northwest, while 

 the allocated softwood timber demands rise only 

 slightly with time, the model results indicate meeting 

 these demands induces some important changes in 

 other resource use, and environmental effects occur. 

 To meet timber and range grazing targets, dispersed 

 recreation growth is limited to about 10 percent of 

 the 1977 use, and wild ruminant grazing will fall 

 below the 1977 level by the end of the projection 

 period. On the other hand, water yield and storm 

 runoff again show an insensitivity to changes in 

 projected demands. 



The intensity of land resource use figures reflects 

 the increases in range grazing demands, as they rise 

 significantly on State and private and Bureau of 

 Land Management lands. Associated with these 

 increases in intensity of land use is a rise in total 

 land resource use cost. As expected, the marginal 

 cost for timber increases only slightly, in response 

 to the similar small rise in timber demands. The 

 range grazing marginal cost increases rapidly. 



Pacific Southwest. — The allocated demand for soft- 

 wood timber and range grazing in the Pacific South- 

 west increases with time, but at a lower rate than 

 in most of the other regions. However, some signifi- 

 cant changes in resource use and environmental effects 

 accompanied the meeting of these projected demands. 



Dispersed recreation can be increased by 46 percent 

 during the projection period. This trend indicates that 

 dispersed recreation use can be increased while 

 meeting projected demands for timber and range 

 grazing. Herbage and browse increase slightly with 

 time, a result of the management practices nec- 

 essary to meet range grazing demands. A slight 

 reduction in dispersed recreation signals possible 

 increased competition as projected demands rise. 

 Wild ruminant grazing rises by 17 percent in 1985, 

 but then drops. Range and wild ruminant grazing 

 production begin to compete at higher levels of 

 range grazing demand. The hydrological outputs, 

 water yield, sediment, and storm runoff display 

 little sensitivity to the projected demand changes 

 in this region, a result both of the low demand 

 increases and the characteristics of the local geo- 

 logy, topography, and soils. 



Examination of the intensity of land resource use 

 data shows a very substantial rise in intensive use of 

 National Forest and especially State and private 

 lands, compared to little change in intensity on 

 Bureau of Land Management or other Federal lands. 



Despite the large increases in intensive use, total 

 land resource use cost rises over the projection period. 

 This moderate rise is necessary to meet the increased 

 timber and range grazing demands. Likewise, the 

 marginal costs rise only slightly, except for the large 

 increase in range grazing marginal cost. 



Conclusions 



Three major conclusions can be drawn from the 

 foregoing analysis of resource interactions. 



The first conclusion is that projecting renewable 

 resource supplies requires an understanding of the 

 complex interactions between the biological poten- 

 tial of the land to produce combinations of goods 

 and services, the impact of various management 

 strategies, and the motives of various types of land- 

 owners. At the present time, knowledge of these 

 interactions is limited and should be the focus of 

 increased attention from the forestry research com- 

 munity. The accuracy of any modeling efforts to 

 quantify these resource interactions will be limited 

 by the understanding of both the biology and eco- 

 nomics of multiresource production. 



A second conclusion is that a model has been 

 developed which can be used to examine a large 

 number of land areas of different productive capacity 

 and to quantify the impacts of meeting increased 

 demands for timber and range grazing. This effort 

 not only lays the groundwork for a more sophisticated 

 way to assess the capability of the Nation's forest 

 and range lands to produce goods and services, but 

 it also can be used to analyze in more detail the 

 benefits and costs of particular management strate- 

 gies as they are applied to particular regions of the 

 country. 



The third conclusion is that the Nation's forest and 

 range lands have the productive capacity to meet 

 the ever-increasing demands for nearly all renewable 

 resource products through the next five decades. 

 Though the inherent productive capacity is there, 

 several changes in land management will have to 

 occur. There will have to be more intensive manage- 

 ment, which will require larger investments than 

 are currently being made. There will have to be shifts 

 among regions in the proportionate share of certain 

 goods which they produce. There will have to be 

 shifts in supply among ownerships with increasing 

 share of goods and services being provided from 

 private ownerships. 



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