CHAPTER I 



WHY STUDY 



TWO hundred and sixteen (216) separate and distinct combinations 

 can be formed by three dice of different design, as shown in the 

 drawing (Fig. 1). On the principle of chance, if these three dice 

 are thrown an infinite number of times, each one of the 216 combina- 

 tions will appear just as often as every other one. 



This is true only if the dice are not weighted. Combinations 

 formed by three dice have been chosen because there are usually at least 

 three alternatives in any case where a man's judgment or opinion is 

 required or asked for. Further, an analogy can be found in the complete 

 human individual where the 



Physical, 



Mental, and . 



Moral 

 must ever be considered ; while on the strictly scientific basis, everything 

 that a man is, or can be, depends upon the three factors: 



Inheritance, 



Environment, and 



Training. 

 Or, again, no opinion worth anything can be formed without the fol- 

 lowing three factors being taken into consideration : 



Obtaining the facts, 



Reasoning thereon, 



Forming a judgment or conclusion. 

 Each dice possessing six sides may be compared to the many facts, 

 conditions, or possibilities that go to make up any one of the three great 

 factors appearing in the tables above. 



It is self-evident from this that in any given case, where there are 

 three factors with six possibilities contingent upon each, unless life's 

 dice are weighted by knowledge, a man's opinion stands only one chance 

 in 216 of being correct. 



The almost ideal laboratory evidence that substantiates these state- 

 ments is found in the fact that out of three thousand cases at one of 

 our leading hospitals, the diagnosticians were correct only 53.5 per cent 

 of the time. 1 If, at our most important institutions, the ablest and best 

 trained men, working with the finest equipment obtainable, are correct 

 only approximately one-half the time, it means that on the principle of 

 chance, when anyone passes an opinion or comes to a conclusion with- 

 out all obtainable knowledge, he cannot approach correctness even this 

 often. 



^'Diagnostic Pitfalls Identified During a Study of Three .Thousand Autopsies," hy Richard C. 

 Cabot, M.D. Journal of the American Medical Association, pp. 2295-2298, Dec. 28, 1912. 



