in measuring net annual growth. Thus it is inevitable that the 
recent trends will continue for a while. Only time and large 
increases in current management programs, especially the re- 
generation programs, can turn these trends around so that 
net annual growth is rising again. 
8. Timber removals have been rising rapidly because of 
increased harvests. For softwoods, removals exceed net 
annual growth over large areas in the South. 
During the last two and a half decades, timber removals in 
the South have increased very rapidly to meet the Nation’s 
expanding needs for wood products. As a result of increased 
removals and declines in growth, softwood timber remov- 
als are now above net annual growth over large areas in the 
South. Net annual hardwood growth is still above 
removals, but the trends are converging. 
As with net annual growth, the longrun trends in timber re- 
movals are the result of forces that are not easily or quickly 
changed. Thus the trends in timber removals are also likely 
to persist for a time. 
9. The base projections in this study show timber 
removals rising above net annual growth and invento- 
ries declining—in the 1990’s for softwoods and beyond 
2000 for hardwoods. Softwood net annual growth is in- 
creasing again by 2000; hardwood growth, by 2020. 
The base projections in this study—the projections that re- 
flect the consensus judgment of the technical experts in- 
volved about the most likely future changes in demand and 
supply determinants—show that the trends in net annual 
growth and removals do persist. Net annual growth of soft- 
woods declines until the early 1990’s, and that for hard- 
woods until after 2010. Beyond those times, net annual 
growth rises again. ~ 
The increases in net annual timber growth result from a level 
of investments in management that is much above that of 
today. By 2030, the area in pine plantations is more than 
doubled; large areas of mixed pine—hardwoods and upland 
hardwoods are converted to pine. Planting or conversion of 
these areas to pine would require additional investments on 
private lands of $2.7 billion, with most of the investment oc- 
curring within the next 15 years. Substantial increases in tim- 
ber yields and in the intensity of management are also as- 
sumed for large areas of pine plantations. Thus, the base 
projections of net annual growth reflect what would happen 
if there continues to be major progress in forestry in the 
South and continued expansion in the technical and finan- 
cial assistance, protection, research, education, and manage- 
ment programs that have brought about the improved for- 
estry situation in the past. 
Timber removals continue to rise through the projection pe- 
riod although at a slower rate than during the last couple of 
decades. Softwood removals rise above net annual growth 
and softwood timber inventories decrease from the mid- 
1980’s until near 2000, when a slow increase begins. At the 
end of the projection period, inventories are still below the 
level reached in 1985. Hardwood inventories rise until 2000, 
then fall through the rest of the projection period when re- 
movals are above net annual growth. 
These base projections show the direction things are 
heading—what 1s likely if current expectations about eco- 
nomic growth, changes in timberland area, the establish- 
ment of pine plantations, management investments, and all 
the other factors that affect timber demand and supply are 
realized. The projected changes are not inevitable, however. 
The present outlook can be changed, and there are impor- 
tant reasons to do so. 
10. The base projections of resource change mean that 
the South is facing a future of rising stumpage and 
roundwood product prices, much lower rates of growth 
in timber harvests, and declines in employment and 
wages and salaries in the forest industries. 
Among the economic consequences of the projected changes 
in the timber resource are rising real prices of stumpage, 
1.e., prices net of inflation or deflation. The increases in the 
two southern regions are largest in the early part of the pro- 
jection period, the time in which softwood timber invento- 
ries are declining. Between 1984 and 2000, for example, 
softwood sawtimber prices rise at an annual rate of 3.2 per- 
cent in the South Central region. After 2000, as invento- 
ries begin to rise, the rates of increase slow down. Between 
2020 and 2030, increases in the South Central region aver- 
age only 0.5 percent per year. 
Softwood pulpwood stumpage prices in both regions rise at 
about the same rate as sawtimber prices in the early part 
of the projection period until 2000. They increase slowly 
during the next two decades, and by the decade from 2020 
to 2030, pulpwood stumpage prices are rising at a 3.5 per- 
cent annual rate in the South Central region. 
Hardwood stumpage prices show much different trends from 
those for softwoods. Prices for hardwoods decline in both 
the southern regions until 2000. They show similar trends 
in the northern regions. These trends reflect the availability 
of large and increasing inventories of hardwood timber. Af- 
