Preface 
The preface to “‘The South’s Third Forest . . . How It Can 
Meet Future Demands’’ (Southern Forest Resource Analysis 
Committee 1969) began: 
The . . . analysis was developed to learn how the 
Sou... achieved its vastly improved, if not wholly 
favorable, timber position over the past several 
decades and how this trend could be continued. 
In a general sense, this is also the basic purpose of the pres- 
ent study. 
Concern about the timber situation in the South began in the 
early 1900’s, when it become evident that forests over much 
of the South were not regenerating after harvest. This con- 
cern led to a series of national and regional analyses that 
provided an analytical basis for developing policies and pro- 
grams to renew and sustain the South’s timber resource. 
As described in the second part of this study, these policies 
and programs—fire protection, technical and financial assis- 
tance, research, education, and the establishment of managed 
industry, public, and other private forests—have been effec- 
tive. They resulted in the regeneration of the second forest in 
the South and made possible the establishment and growth of 
the pulp and paper and softwood plywood industries. They 
have also shaped the third forest—the forest that will be the 
source of most of the timber harvested in the South in the rest 
of this century. 
The kind of forest that will exist after that—the fourth forest— 
still remains to be determined. Development of the fourth 
forest can be managed, and the forest itself can take almost 
any form desired. And that is the central focus of this study: 
what kind of forest is evolving, what kind of forest will be of 
greatest benefit to the economy and society in the South, and 
how can it be achieved? 
The study has five major parts dealing with these questions. 
The first is concerned with the economic importance of the 
forests in the South. It describes the uses of the forest; the 
area, location, and characteristics of the timberland; the vol- 
ume and value of roundwood products; and the contribution 
of timber-based manufacturing in terms of employment, wages 
and salaries, and value of shipments. This material docu- 
ments the great importance of the forest resource and the 
timber-based industries to the economy and society in all 
Southern States. 
The second part of the study describes past changes in the 
forest resource and forest industries. It relates these changes 
to shifts in the use of land for crops and pasture; research and 
technological developments; and programs from the Federal, 
State, forest industry, and other private sectors on manage- 
ment, assistance, and education. This part of the study ex- 
plains how the timber situation has turned around in the South, 
from the lack of regeneration of the resource in the late 1800’s 
and early 1900’s to successful regeneration and the great 
increases in timber growth that have occurred in the last few 
decades. 
The material in this chapter also provides a means of apprais- 
ing the effects of the policies and programs that have been in 
place and a perspective for guiding policies and programs in 
the future. 
The third part of the study is concerned with projections of 
changes in the timber resource—timber supplies (harvests), 
net annual growth, timber removals, and timber inventories. 
These projections—the base projections—show what would 
happen to the timber resource given present expectations about 
basic changes in demand determinants such as population, 
economic activity, income, and product prices; and changes 
in supply determinants such as the area of timberland, man- 
agement intensity, growth responses, and stumpage prices. 
The effects of a series of other futures or other expectations 
(about changes in various demand determinants such as eco- 
nomic activity and supply determinants such as area change 
and management intensities) are also simulated. 
These projections provide a means of identifying future or 
developing timber problems. They provide guidance for many 
decisions on long-range commitments such as investments in 
plant and facilities and timber management practices whose 
effects are realized over an extended period of time. Finally, 
they also provide the data needed for analyzing the economic, 
social, and environmental implications of the various futures 
that have been simulated. 
The fourth part of the study is concerned with these implica- 
tions. It describes the impacts of the futures analyzed on the 
resource, stumpage and product prices, lumber and plywood 
production, roundwood pulpwood consumption, employment 
and wages and salaries in the timber-processing industries, 
needed investments for timber management and plant and 
equipment, State and local government revenues, and wildlife, 
fish, forage, and water. This provides a quantitative basis for 
moving toward growing the forest that will be of greatest 
benefit to the economy and the society, as well as forest 
owners, forest industries, and State and local governments in 
the South. 
The fifth part of the study quantifies the economic opportuni- 
ties for increasing timber supplies by treatment opportunity, 
management type, and ownership. This provides the data 
needed for selecting the treatments that will most economi- 
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