Millions 
400 Population 
05 ————es—“(i 
200 
100 
0 
1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 
Billion 1982 dollars 
50,000 Gross national product 
(000k rr rr 
— 
ee 
—— 
— 
= 
1,000 
100 
1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 
1982 dollars 
50,000 Per capita disposable personal income 
10,000 
5,000 
1,000 ERE TNR TE TER BERT ET TI TIO | 
1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 
Figure 3.1—Population, economic activity, and income in 
the United States, 1929-86, with projections to 2030 
The most recent projections by the Department of Com- 
merce, Bureau of the Census and Wharton Econometric 
Forecasting Associates indicate that this upward trend likely 
will be sustained in the decades ahead. The Wharton projec- 
tion series used in this analysis shows the Nation’s total pop- 
ulation reaching 275 million in 2000 and continuing up to 
almost 320 million in 2030. In line with trends over the 
past 20 years, however, the average annual rate of growth 
declines from about | percent in the 1980’s to 0.3 percent 
in the last decade of the projection period. Such declines in 
the rate of growth—primarily a reflection of Bureau of the 
Census assumptions about future birth rates—mean that the 
average age of the population will gradually rise over the 
next 45 years. They also mean a substantial increase dur- 
ing most of the projection period in the number and pro- 
portion of people in the middle age classes—those who have 
the highest incomes and generate the largest demands for 
goods and services. 
Economic Activity and Income 
The levels of activity and longrun growth of the impor- 
tant timber products markets are dependent to a large de- 
gree on the overall strength of the U.S. economy and the 
associated income generated for the Nation’s population to 
spend. Despite a major depression and several recessions, 
U.S. output has shown substantial growth over the past half- 
century. Between 1929 and 1986, the gross national 
product, a measure of the market value of all the goods and 
services produced in the economy, increased more than five 
times, rising to $3,713 billion, measured in constant 1982 
dollars (table 3.2, fig. 3.1). Forest Service projections 
based on analyses by the U.S. Department of Commerce, 
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wharton Econometric 
Forecasting Associates show a gross national product of 
$5,390 billion (1982 dollars) in 2000 and a further increase 
to $10,570 billion in 2030—nearly triple the current level. 
The associated projection of per capita gross national prod- 
uct rises to $19,590 in 2000 and in 2030 to $33,100, about 
2.2 times the 1986 average. 
Total disposable personal income—the income available for 
spending by the Nation’s population—is expected to grow 
from about $2,645 billion in 1986 to $7,280 billion in 2030 
(1982 dollars). Per capita disposable personal income rises 
to $22,800 in 2030, some 2.1 times the average in 1986. 
There are major implications associated with these popula- 
tion and income assumptions. Such growth means that the 
Nation is faced not only with the task of meeting the re- 
source demands of an additional 78 million people, but the 
89 
