demands of 320 million people with much greater purchas- 
ing power than they have today. Although demand for 
services is expected to account for a large part of the 
additional demands generated by more people with larger 
incomes, substantial growth in the demands for furniture, 
newspapers, magazines, and other goods made in whole or 
in part from timber products is likely. 
Institutional, Technological, and Other Changes 
In the past, institutional and technological changes have ma- 
terially influenced the use and availability of timber and 
other renewable resources. For example, increasing urban- 
ization and attendant land constraints have contributed to a 
larger proportional demand for attached single-family 
houses and apartments—units that are generally smaller and 
use less wood products per unit of floor area than detached 
houses. Similar institutional changes have influenced the de- 
sign and construction of large urban buildings in which 
wood products use is limited by building codes or other 
restrictions. 
Technological change also has affected the demand for 
timber. The development of economical water-resistant adhe- 
sives led to large increases in plywood consumption in the 
1950’s and 1960’s. In turn, rising plywood use was a ma- 
jor factor in holding down lumber consumption during this 
period. More recently, development of other panel products, 
such as structural waferboard and oriented strand board, 
has resulted in the displacement of plywood for many of the 
same uses in which it earlier replaced lumber. New tech- 
nology also has engendered large increases in hardwood use 
in pallets and other panel products such as hardboard and 
particleboard and in paper and board products. 
At any time, potential institutional and technological changes 
on the horizon could affect the demand for timber products. 
But the nature and effect of many of these potential changes 
are similar to those that have taken place in the past and 
are accounted for in the historical data used in preparing the 
projections. 
Changes in energy costs have substantial effects on the de- 
mand for timber products, both through their impact on the 
level of economic activity and through their direct impact 
on the use of the various products, especially fuelwood. 
Moreover, the current long-term outlook for energy costs 
is clouded by the drop in fossil fuel prices in the 1980's, 
after extremely rapid growth in the preceding period. How- 
ever, most recent analyses, including one by Wharton 
Econometric Forecasting Services (1986), indicate that 
90 
Energy costs have substantial impacts on the 
demands for timber products, particularly 
fuelwood. Most energy analysts expect 
upward pressure on oil prices in the 1990’s 
and beyond. This trend will surely lead to 
increased demands on domestic timber 
resources for fuelwood. 
worldwide demand for crude oil is likely to approach capac- 
ity levels around the turn of the century, even without re- 
straints by the Persian Gulf countries. This is expected to 
again create significant upward pressure on real oil prices 
in the 1990’s and beyond to the extent that Wharton pro- 
jects that the production of synthetic fuels will become eco- 
nomically viable. 
Substantial amounts of capital will be required to make the 
necessary investments in management, physical facilities, 
and processing plants to accommodate increased demands for 
timber products. But with the expected growth in gross na- 
tional product discussed earlier, it does not appear that capi- 
tal availability will significantly constrain long-term eco- 
nomic growth in general or intensified use of timber 
resources. 
Trends in Timber Use and Projected Demands 
The volume of roundwood removed from the inventory of 
timber in the Nation’s forests is largely determined by the 
harvests of timber for the production of lumber, paper and 
board, panel products, and for fuelwood. These timber re- 
movals and net annual growth are the major determinants of 
change in timber resources. 
Timber has been harvested since settlement began. Start- 
ing then, and for a long time after, timber was the Nation’s 
most important raw material. It had wide use in all types 
