Most paper is consumed in one form or another by indi- 
viduals, with their level of use a function of their incomes. 
Consequently, there has been a close statistical relationship 
between changes in consumption of paper and changes in 
population and income. On the other hand, paperboard, 
which is used for packaging industrial and agricultural 
commodities, has been more closely related to changes in 
overall industrial and economic growth as determined by 
the gross national product. Trends in the the major pulp- 
based building board products—insulating board and hard- 
board—have been associated with the construction and 
manufacturing sectors, as described earlier. 
On the basis of past relations and trends, total demand for 
paper, paperboard, and building board is projected to rise 
to about 102 million tons in 2000, and to more than 145 
million tons in 2030—about 85 percent above consumption 
in 1984—although the rates of growth drop throughout the 
projection period. Projections of per capita demand also 
rise, reaching 908 pounds in 2030, 36 percent above per ca- 
pita use in 1984. 
In addition to changes in demand for paper and board, the 
amounts and kinds of fibrous materials used in its manufac- 
ture will strongly influence future demand for pulpwood. 
Since the 1920’s, average use of fibrous materials per ton 
of ail grades of paper and board produced has shown lit- 
tle variation, ranging from 0.984 to 1.092 tons. 
Although the amount of fibrous materials used per ton of pa- 
per and board produced has shown little change, there have 
been changes in the mix of fibers consumed. For example, 
since the early 1950’s, new woodpulp has risen from 
roughly two-thirds to around four-fifths of the total fibrous 
mix. Use of wastepaper, on the other hand, declined from 
approximately a third of the total fibers used to about 20 
percent in 1984. All of this decline took place prior to the 
late 1960’s, and since that time the percentage has shown 
no sustained upward or downward trend. Use of other 
fibers dropped from about 5 percent to less than | percent. 
Despite the fact that there has been little change in the pro- 
portion of recycled fibers used over the past two decades, 
such factors as changing paper types, concerns about the 
environment, problems of solid waste disposal, and increas- 
ing competition for timber in some locations suggest future 
growth in wastepaper recycling. As a consequence, use of 
recycled fibers per ton of paper and board produced has been 
assumed to rise about 20 percent, to 0.24 tons per ton of 
paper and board produced in 2030. Projected use of new 
woodpulp drops to about 0.75 tons and use of other fibers 
is expected to show little change. 
Billion square feet (3/8-inch basis) 
25 All types 
20 
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 
Hardwood plywood and particleboard 
12 Particleboard 
0 
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 
Insulating board and hardwood 
0 
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 
Figure 3.5—Nonstructural panel consumption in the United 
States, by type, 1950-84, with projections to 2030 
101 
