Hardwood plywood exports, which have generally been less 
than 0.5 billion. square feet over the past 35 years, are ex- 
pected to remain small through 2030. Insulating board ex- 
ports have been relatively constant since the early 1950’s 
and are expected to remain at about 0.1 billion square feet 
over the projection period. In contrast, exports of both hard- 
board and particleboard are expected to increase slowly in 
response to growth in the major offshore markets. 
In 1984, the roundwood equivalent of the exports of all 
pulp products amounted to about 0.9 billion cubic feet. 
Though only about half as large as the volume of similar 
imports, exports of these products have also been moving 
up slowly since the early 1950’s. Such trends are expected 
to continue over the projection period. 
Exports of softwood logs—largely from the Pacific North- 
west to Japan and, more recently, to China—have been the 
subject of some controversy and restrictions in the past. Ex- 
ports in 1984 amounted to about 3.4 billion board feet, 
down from a peak 3.8 billion in 1979. Projections of fu- 
ture softwood log exports remain near present levels until 
about 2000 and subsequently decline modestly through the 
decades until 2030. This outlook is consistent with ex- 
pected declines in future Japanese housing markets, and 
potentially expanded softwood supplies from Chile, New 
Zealand, and the Soviet Union after 2000. The ultimate im- 
pact of demands from the People’s Republic of China, cur- 
rently about half as large as shipments to Japan, is difficult 
to assess at this time. However, total exports to all offshore 
markets in the future are likely to be affected by prospec- 
tive decreased supplies of high quality old-growth softwood 
timber in the Pacific Northwest. Exports of hardwood logs, 
about 25 million cubic feet in 1984, are projected to be less 
than 50 million in the projection period. 
Projected Trends in Total Trade—As a result of the pro- 
jected trends in imports of the various timber products dis- 
cussed above, total imports, currently at about 4.2 billion 
cubic feet, roundwood equivalent, are expected to rise to 
4.7 billion in 2010, and subsequently fall to 4.4 billion in 
2030 (table 3.9). These trends are the result of declining 
softwood product imports after 2010, largely due to the pro- 
jected drop in softwood lumber imports from Canada. 
Total hardwood imports are projected at 0.5 billion cubic 
feet in 2030, up 67 percent from the volume shipped in 
1984. 
Projected total exports increase about 14 percent to 2.4 bil- 
lion cubic feet in 2030, despite no prospective sustained 
growth in softwood shipments. 
Exports of hardwood products are projected to rise 75 
percent, to about 0.7 billion cubic feet over the projection 
period. 
With these projections of timber products imports and 
exports, there will be only a modest overali decline in net 
imports into the United States, from 2.1 billion cubic feet 
in 1984 to 3.0 billion cubic feet in 2030. All of the decline 
takes place at the end of the projection period. 
Demands on U.S. Timberland 
Given the above projections of total demands and net 
imports, demands on U.S. timberland increase sharply over 
the next 45 years, rising about 39 percent, from 14.6 bil- 
lion cubic feet in 1984 to 20.3 billion in 2030 (table 3.9, 
fig. 3.8). Demands for both softwoods and hardwoods 
increase; however, in line with projected trends discussed 
above, hardwood demand rises somewhat more rapidly. Be- 
tween 1984 and 2030, demand on U.S. timberland for hard- 
woods is projected to increase about 73 percent, to 7.6 
billion cubic feet. Demands on U.S. timberland for 
softwoods during the same period grow about 23 percent, 
to 12.7 billion cubic feet. 
In summary, these base projections show that domestic and 
export demands can be expected to grow fairly rapidly over 
the next four and a half decades. Taken together, these de- 
mands increase about 31 percent, to 24.7 billon cubic feet, 
roundwood equivalent, in 2030. At the same time, prospec- 
tive imports are projected to be only slightly larger. As a 
consequence, in the future the United States must look to its 
domestic timber resources to meet a larger proportionate 
share of its demands for timber products. 
These national demands are part of the data needed to esti- 
mate timber demand-supply equilibrium by geographic sec- 
tions and regions using the analytical systems described 
above. It is also necessary to estimate timber supplies. 
Assumptions on Area of Timberland 
Changes in the area of timberland—land capable of grow- 
ing at least 20 cubic feet of industrial wood per acre per year 
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