among ownerships and among States. They directly reflect 
tree planting, one of the chief indicators of management 
intensity. 
Area change projections by forest management type were 
based on assumptions about the probability that a particular 
acre will receive a certain type of management (including 
the probability of no active management) and the associ- 
ated probabilities that an acre so managed will remain in 
the same forest type or will make the transition to other for- 
est types. 
Preliminary projections of timberland area derived from the 
econometric system and the assumptions described above 
were reviewed by the State Foresters and members of the 
State study groups established in each State to provide 
assistance in this study (see Acknowledgments). The 
econometric system and the projections were also reviewed 
by technical experts from the Forest Service, forest 
industries, and forestry schools. 
Thus, the projections of changes in area shown in table 3.10 
are the product of the analytical system and assumptions 
modified by the judgment of experts from the major for- 
estry interests in the South and in each State. The result- 
ing projections (table 3.10 and app. tables 3.1—3.14) show 
a slow declining trend. Total timberland area, for example, 
drops from about 182 million acres in 1985 to 174 million 
acres in 2030. The South Central region and Southeast are 
both projected to sustain a 4-million-acre reduction in for- 
est area (app. tables 3.1 and 3.2). 
The projections also show a downward trend in almost all 
States (figs. 3.9 and 3.10, app. tables 3.3—3.14). In some 
States such as Florida, Georgia, and Arkansas, where sub- 
stantial relative increases in population and economic activ- 
ity are expected, the drop in timberland acreage is fairly 
large. In most of the other States, projected changes are 
small. In some States, the area of timberland is projected 
to rise or essentially remain constant in the latter part of the 
projection period. 
The projected net area changes largely reflect the direct con- 
version of timberland to urban and developed uses, and other 
acres converted to replace cropland lost to urban and devel- 
oped uses. The area of cropland is projected to remain 
essentially constant, while urban and related uses go up 
from 51 million to 64 million acres. The pasture and range 
area, on the other hand, is projected to drop by about 7 mil- 
lion acres, a response in part to a continuing decline in per 
capita domestic consumption of red meat, which affects live- 
stock prices. 
Table 3.11—Timberland with high or medium potential for 
conversion to cropland! in the South, by State and region, 1982 
Thousand acres 
Conversion potential 
to cropland 
Region and State High Medium 
Southeast 
Florida 185 1,021 
Georgia Ts 2,439 
North Carolina 1,150 4,155 
South Carolina 117 1,070 
Virginia 279 1,997 
Total 2,506 10,682 
South Central 
Alabama 499 2,287 
Arkansas 251 979 
Louisiana 390 1,734 
Mississippi 400 1,333 
Oklahoma 43 365 
Tennessee 402 1,044 
Texas 35 450 
Total 2,020 8,192 
Total South 4,526 18,874 
' The potential for conversion to cropland was determined by a 
multiagency group in each county as part of the National Re- 
sources Inventory process. The group considered the type of 
action necessary for conversion, commodity prices, costs of 
development and production, and other conditions affecting 
conversion to cropland as of 1980. Land was judged to have a 
high, medium, low, or zero potential for conversion to cropland 
over the next 10 to 15 years based on these factors and conversion 
rates for similar tracts of land in the past. 
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, 
National Resources Inventory, 1982. 
Uncertainty is always associated with projections of land 
use, and at the present time the outlook for cropland needs 
seems especially uncertain. For example, about 23 million 
acres of timberland in the South have high or medium po- 
tential for conversion to cropland (table 3.11). Although this 
land is concentrated to some extent in the States with 
coastal plains, there are substantial acreages in all States. If 
agricultural export demands increase more than currently 
expected, or if crop yields increase at slower rates than 
assumed, all or a substantial part of this area could be 
cleared and used for crops. 
115 
