Part of the uncertainty associated with the projections of land 
use include the implementation of provisions of the Food 
Security Act of 1985 (Farm Bill). Three major provisions of 
the Farm Bill may significantly impact forest area in the 
South: (1) the Conservation Reserve Program, (2) swamp- 
buster and sodbuster provisions, and (3) the conservation 
compliance provision (Moulton and Dicks 1987). 
About 8 million acres of highly erodible land in the South 
are suitable for forestation (table 3.12). Most Southern States 
have substantial acreages of this land and, under the Con- 
servation Reserve Program of the 1985 Farm Bill, it is as- 
sumed that about 3 million acres would be planted to trees 
by 1990. There is a total of 22 million acres of marginal 
cropland and pasture in the South, including the highly erod- 
ible land, that would yield higher rates of return to the own- 
ers in pine plantations (table 3.13). This land, distributed 
in fairly large acreages through most Southern States, would 
be another logical source of land for Conservation Reserve 
Programs or for programs to increase timber supplies. 
Impacts of the ‘‘buster’’ and compliance provisions are more 
difficult to project because of possible changes in govern- 
Table 3.12—Area of highly erodible cropland! suitable for tree 
planting in the South, by region and State 
Thousand acres 
Area suitable 
Region and State for tree planting 
Southeast 
Florida 52 
Georgia 659 
North Carolina 1,047 
South Carolina 299 
Virginia. 1,058 
Total 3,115 
South Central 
Alabama 851 
Arkansas 583 
Louisiana 75 
Mississippi 1,022 
Oklahoma 56 
Tennessee 1,287 
Texas 755 
Total 4,629 
Total South 7,744 
' Cropland classified by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil 
Conservation Service in land capability classes 3e, 4e, 6e, and 7e 
and also suitable for planting to trees. 
118 
Table 3.13—Area of cropland and pasture in the South, including 
highly erodible cropland, that would yield higher rates of return in 
pine plantations 
Thousand acres 
Area suitable for 
Region and State tree planting 
Southeast 
Florida 1,354 
Georgia 1,864 
North Carolina 2,115 
South Carolina 745 
Virginia 2,745 
Total 8,823 
South Central 
Alabama 2,456 
Arkansas 1,956 
Louisiana 521 
Mississippi 2,526 
Oklahoma 800 
Tennessee 3,258 
Texas 1,615 
Total 13,132 
21,955 
Total South 
ment commodity subsidy and loan programs that would al- 
ter the attractiveness of converting erodible land to crop 
use. 
Next to the Conservation Reserve Program, the conserva- 
tion compliance provision could have the largest impact on 
timberland area in the South. Existing cropland identified as 
highly erodible will be subject to conservation compliance, 
some of which will be treated under the Conservation Re- 
serve Program. If farmers do not comply, they could lose 
government subsidies on all acres. The South has between 
2 million and 4 million acres of cropland in this category, 
all of which conceivably could be shifted to forest. The 
maximum addition to timberland under this Farm Bill pro- 
vision would amount to approximately 2 percent of the ex- 
isting timberland in the South. 
There is no way of knowing how the timberland with po- 
tential for use as cropland or pasture or the marginal crop- 
land and pasture suitable for pine plantations will be used 
in the future. There could be either a substantial further re- 
duction in timberland area or a substantial increase. In the 
following chapter, two alternative futures are simulated that 
show the effects of converting all the timberland with high 
or medium potential for conversion to cropland, and of 
