Recent and Projected Softwood Net Annual Growth 
Net annual growth is the net change in merchantable, 
growing stock volume for a specific year in the absence of 
removals. In the estimates of net growth, mortality has 
already been deducted. The more recent estimates of net 
annual growth are based on periodic remeasurements of 
permanent sample plots at 5- to 10-year intervals. 
Southwide Trends 
After a long upward trend in net annual growth of softwood 
in the South, recent forest surveys have been measuring 
declines in many areas (fig. 3.21, tables 3.15 and 3.16). 
Between 1952 and 1976, net annual growth of softwood 
growing stock increased from 3.7 billion to 6.1 billion cubic 
feet, or by 65 percent. Since 1976, softwood growth has 
peaked, at least temporarily, and turned downward. In 1984, 
the net annual growth of softwood totaled 5.7 billion cubic 
feet. These changes in net annual growth have several 
causes, which are covered in detail in later discussions. 
Most of the recent decline in softwood growth has occurred 
on timberland in other private ownerships (table 3.15, fig. 
3.21). Between 1976 and 1984, net annual growth of soft- 
wood on farmer lands in the other private category decreased 
28 percent; on other individual holdings the decrease was 
6 percent. In contrast, net annual softwood growth increased 
12 percent on forest industry lands. 
The base projections suggest the recent downturn in net 
annual growth of softwood in the South will continue until 
near the turn of the century, at that time softwood growth 
turns back up. Between 1984 and 1990, net annual growth 
of softwood is projected to decrease from 5.7 billion to 5.3 
billion cubic feet, or by about 8 percent. The downturn is 
caused by actions already taken or forgone. Although there 
is evidence of recent improvement in the rates of pine 
regeneration on other private lands, it will take 10 or more 
years for the planted trees to reach merchantable size. 
Most of the decrease in net annual growth by 1990 occurs 
on other private land, where it is projected to drop by 24 
percent. Beyond 1990, softwood growth on other private 
land climbs back to 3.2 billion cubic feet in 2030, just 
slightly lower than in 1984. On forest industry land, soft- 
wood growth increases throughout the projection period 
reaching 3.4 billion cubic feet by 2030, some 85 percent 
above current growth. 
The projected increase in timber growth on private owner- 
ships is based on the expectation that investments in timber 
management programs will be much above those of today. 
For example, it was assumed that by 2030 the area in pine 
148 
plantations will be doubled and that large areas of mixed 
pine—hardwoods and upland hardwoods will be converted to 
pine. The necessary planting and conversion would require 
about $2.7 billion. Substantial increases in timber yields and 
the intensity of management were also assumed for large 
areas of pine plantations. Thus, the projected increases in net 
annual softwood growth show only what would happen if 
there continues to be a lot of progress in forestry in the 
South and continued expansion in technical and financial 
assistance, protection, research, education, and management 
programs that have brought about the increases in growth 
in the past. 
On public timberlands, net annual softwood growth is pro- 
jected to drop about 11 percent by 2000. Some of the 
prospective decline is attributed to the aging of pine stands 
being carried over long rotations for sawtimber. There is 
a small increase in growth between 2000 and 2030. 
As with removals, the major change in softwood growth 
trends by forest management type has been a shift from 
natural pine stands to pine plantations (fig. 3.22, table 3.16). 
Softwood growth in pine plantations has nearly doubled 
over the past 15 years and now accounts for almost one- 
fourth of the total. In natural pine and mixed pine— 
hardwood stands, softwood growth is down 15 percent from 
the level in 1976. Only 10 percent of the softwood growth 
occurs in hardwood stands, and this includes the growth of 
cypress in bottomland hardwood stands. 
The prospective decline in softwood growth occurs in 
natural stands. Net annual growth of softwood in pine 
plantations is expected to more than double between now 
and the year 2000. More than 60 percent of the softwood 
growth in the region will be in plantations by then. Soft- 
wood growth in pine plantations in 2030 is nearly four times 
that in 1984. 
Trends in the Southeast 
Recent forest surveys have measured significant reductions 
in the net annual growth of softwood in the Southeast (app. 
tables 3.21 and 3.35). After rising for decades, net annual 
growth of softwood growing stock seems to have peaked 
around 1980 at about 3.1 billion cubic feet and then dropped 
to 2.9 billion cubic feet in 1984. 
Most of the reduction has been in natural pine and mixed 
pine—hardwood stands on other private timberlands in the 
Piedmont and mountains. In these parts of the Southeast, 
growth of pine is also down on public land but shows little 
change on industry land. Overall, net annual growth of pine 
