The material in the preceding chapter quantified and de- 
scribed the kinds of changes in the timber resource—the 
base projections—that are likely to take place if current ex- 
pectations about major demand and supply determinants are 
realized. Timber is a basic raw material in the South and 
in the Nation, and the projected changes in the resource have 
important regional and national economic and environmen- 
tal impacts. The most significant of these are described in 
this chapter. 
The discussion of impacts is followed by a discussion of 
some of the effects that changing the basic demand and 
supply assumptions would have on the base projections 
discussed in chapter 3. Some of these simulations of other 
futures are sensitivity analyses designed to show what would 
happen given different assumptions on trade or timber prod- 
uct yields. Most, however, are designed to show what would 
happen to the timber resource and the associated parts of 
the economy and environment under various policies, 
programs, and legislation currently being considered. The re- 
sulting measures of changes in the timber resource and the 
associated changes in prices, employment, wages and 
salaries, and other economic and environmental measures 
provide a quantitative basis for making decisions about leg- 
islation and forest policies and programs. 
198 
Economic and Environmental Implications of the 
Base Projections of Resource Changes 
The base projections of resource changes presented in 
chapter 3 will influence sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage 
prices, lumber and plywood production, pulpwood 
consumption, lumber prices, softwood lumber imports, and 
employment and wages and salaries in forest industries. 
The projections will also affect investments in forest 
management and plants and equipment, State and local 
government revenues, forage, wildlife, fish, and water. The 
changes in these economic and environmental measures are 
important by themselves, but they also provide a basis for 
comparison with changes resulting from simulating other 
futures, especially those concerned with legislation and poli- 
cies and programs. 
Because of limited data and associated analytical 
problems, many of the estimates quantifying the economic 
and environmental implications of the base projections and 
the simulations are only general approximations. They are, 
however, the result of a structured effort to compile and 
analyze the existing data. They should provide broad mea- 
sures of the magnitudes of change and of the difference 
among simulations, both of which will be useful to 
executives, legislators, and administrators who make deci- 
sions about legislation and forest policies and programs. 
Readers need to keep in mind also that base projections 
are the product of a level of timberland management that 
is much more intensive than that practiced today. By 2030, 
the area in pine plantations in the South is nearly doubled; 
large areas of mixed pine—hardwoods and upland hardwoods 
are converted to pine. Planting or conversion of these areas 
to pine would require investments of $2.7 billion, most of 
it invested within the next 15 years. Substantial increases 
in timber yields and in the intensity of management were 
also assumed for large areas of pine plantations. Thus, the 
base projections reflect what would happen if (1) forestry in 
the South continues to progress, and (2) there is continued 
expansion in the technical and financial assistance, 
protection, research, education, and management programs 
that have brought about the improved forestry situation in 
the past. 
Sawtimber and Pulpwood Stumpage Prices 
Among the economic consequences of the projected 
base-level changes in the timber resource are rising real 
prices of stumpage—prices net of inflation or deflation. 
There are substantial increases in softwood sawtimber stump- 
age prices (fig. 4.1, app. tables 4.1 and 4.2). Price in- 
creases in the southern regions are the largest between 1984 
and 2000, a time in which softwood timber inventories are 
