Price index (1984 = 100) 
300 
250 
200 
150 
100 
South Central 
\ 
\ 
Southeast 
1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 
1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 
Figure 4.3—Hardwood sawtimber stumpage price indexes in the South, 1905-85, with base projections by region, 1990-2030 
wood lumber prices go up at a 1.7-percent annual rate in 
1980’s and 1990’s but slow down over the rest of the projec- 
tion years. Hardwood lumber prices show an opposite 
pattern, rising slowly in the early years and at increasingly 
faster rates in the later years. 
Projected increases in lumber prices are consistent with 
the historical trends (fig. 4.4). Since 1800, the price of 
lumber, after adjustments for inflation and deflation, has 
been rising at an average rate of 1.7 percent per year. The 
historical increases have not been evenly spread, however. 
There have repeatedly been periods of a decade or so 
where prices showed little change or declined, followed by 
periods in which prices rose rapidly. 
Rising product prices constrain the demands for timber 
products and in turn the demand for timber. They also have 
some broader impacts on the economy, society, and the 
environment. Recently these were documented in consider- 
able detail in ‘‘An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the 
United States, 1952—2030’’ (USDA Forest Service 1982). 
From an economic point of view, the greatest losses from 
rising real prices of stumpage will be sustained by 
consumers. Home buyers will be the most affected. The cost 
of new dwellings will increase. The number, average size, 
and quality of units built will also be adversely affected. Ev- 
eryone in the society uses wood from trees in some form— 
as housing, furniture, containers, writing paper, books and 
newspapers, fuel, and hundreds of other ways—and will 
be adversely affected. 
The effects of rising real prices of stumpage on the rate 
of use of nonrenewable resources and the environment are 
also important. As timber prices rise, and more steel, 
aluminum, and plastics are substituted for wood, there wiil 
be an acceleration in the use of nonrenewable resources, 
particularly fuel and metal minerals. There will also be ris- 
ing environmental costs, chiefly from larger emissions of 
air and water pollutants resulting from the added mining, in- 
dustrial processing, and power generation associated with 
the greater use of substitute materials. 
201 
