Thousand employees 
300 
Lumber and wood products 
Som. 
~— — 
200 a, 
z= 
==> au ena 
150 a = a 
250 
500 Pulp and paper products 
50 
0 
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 
Figure 4.5—Employment in lumber and wood products and 
pulp and paper products industries in the South, selected 
years 1954-85, with projections to 2030. Lumber and wood 
products include all industries in Standard Industrial Classi- 
fication (SIC) 24, including mobile homes (SIC 2451) 
beginning in 1972. Pulp and paper products include all 
industries in SIC 26. 
tween 1984 and 2030, employment in the lumber and wood 
products industry drops by 54,000 people and that in pulp 
and paper products industry drops by 31,000. By 2030, em- 
ployment in both industries falls by 85,000, a 21-percent 
decrease. Total wages and salaries also start to decline af- 
ter 2000. 
These downward trends are a reversal of the increases that 
have taken place in recent decades. The projected rise in 
timber supplies (harvests) is not large enough to sustain the 
rising employment of the past three decades. Rising produc- 
tivity per employee overrides the projected increases in 
harvests. 
On the other side; rising productivity is passed on as 
higher wages and salaries per employee. As a result, wages 
and salaries (in constant dollars) for both industries increase 
for a while, although at much slower rates than over the 
past 30 years (fig. 4.6). Beyond 2000 even these modest in- 
creases cannot be sustained, and wages and salaries also 
begin to decline. 
The drop in employment and wages and salaries is of 
great economic significance to the South. The forestry sec- 
tor will decrease in importance. The effects will be multi- 
plied as they spread through the trade, service, 
transportation, and other parts of the southern economy that 
provide goods and services to the forestry sector. It is cur- 
204 
Million 1967 dollars 
2000 Pulp and paper products 
1500 
1000 \ 
Lumber and wood products 
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 
Figure 4.6—Wages and salaries in lumber and wood 
products and pulp and paper products industries in the 
South, selected years 1954-85, with projections to 2030. 
Lumber and wood products include all industries in Standard 
Industrial Classification (SIC) 24, including mobile homes 
(SIC 2451) beginning in 1972. Pulp and paper products 
include all industries in SIC 26. 
rently estimated, for example, that a loss of one job in the 
lumber and wood products industry would result in a de- 
crease of 2.3 jobs throughout the economy in the Southern 
States. A one-job loss in the pulp and paper products in- 
dustry would be multiplied 2.6 times as other parts of the 
economy are affected. 
Investments in Forest Management 
As described in the preceding chapter of this study, the 
base timber resource projections are the result of a set of as- 
sumptions on management practices, including large in- 
creases in the area of pine plantations and timber yields. 
These increases can be achieved only through additional in- 
vestments in regeneration, including site preparation where 
needed, stand conversion, precommercial and commercial 
thinning, stocking control, harvest of mature stands, and sal- 
vage harvest and regeneration. 
To achieve the increases in growth shown in the base 
projections, an investment of $2.7 billion would be needed 
to establish pine plantations on private timberlands between 
1984 and 2030, with most of the investments made in the 
next 15 years. Large additional investments would be needed 
for intermediate stand treatments, treatments not involving 
area change in management types, and treatments on pub- 
lic lands. 
