Investments in Plants and Equipment 
Processing the timber harvests shown in the base projec- 
tions into products such as lumber, plywood, and woodpulp 
will require investments to (1) maintain the existing plants 
and equipment, and (2) add the capacity necessary for pro- 
cessing the increased volume of timber harvested. 
The total investments required in the South are large. 
They rise from about $1.9 billion in 1984 to $3.2 billion 
in 2000 and on up to $3.4 billion in 2030 (app. table 4.5). 
Some 60 to 70 percent of the increase in investments is to 
maintain the existing plant capacity. This reflects the large 
size of the existing capacity compared to the additional ca- 
pacity required to process the relatively small increases in 
timber harvests. 
Roughly 95 percent of this investment is in the pulp and 
paper industry, largely due to the higher costs of the plants 
and equipment used in the manufacture of pulp and paper. 
The volume of wood processed and the projected increases 
are also larger in the pulp and paper industry than in the 
lumber and wood products sector. 
The required investments are largest in the South Central 
region for both industries. The volume of wood processed 
in that region is somewhat bigger than in the Southeast. 
State and Local Government Revenues 
The area of timberland and timber harvest changes, 
including the associated changes in activity in the lumber 
and wood products and pulp and paper industries, will have 
an impact on State and local government revenues. The base 
projections show large increases: revenues more than dou- 
ble by 2030 in both regions (app. table 4.5). However, only 
a small part of the increase in revenues can be attributed 
to changes in the timber resource. The revenues shown are 
total general revenues and include (1) receipts from all 
State and local tax systems—income, property, sales, 
services, etc.; (2) receipts from all State and local fee or 
charge mechanisms—drivers’ licenses, automobile 
registrations, etc.; and (3) transfer payments from the Fed- 
eral Government. 
Thus the base projections shown in appendix table 4.5 are 
not a meaningful measure of effects of changes in timber- 
land area and timber harvests on revenues. These base pro- 
jections do provide a base for comparison with the other 
futures analyzed. The differences between the base and the 
revenues shown for the other futures are measures of the 
effects of changes in the timber resource. These are de- 
scribed in the appropriate places below. 
Forage, Wildlife and Fish, and Water 
The projected changes in land use and in the timber 
resource, including the associated changes in timber 
management, start a complex system of changes in the natu- 
ral environment and natural resources. These are all impor- 
tant in various ways to the economy and general social well 
being. Thus, in making decisions that bring about changes 
in land use and timber policies and programs, it is impor- 
tant to have a measure of the likely impacts on the environ- 
ment and natural resources other than timber. 
Because of limitations in time and data, it has not been 
possible to analyze an extensive array of impacts. The 
analysis in this study is directed at forage production; the 
abundance of white-tailed deer, wild turkey, and trout; dis- 
tribution of red-cockaded woodpecker; and water quantity. 
The white-tailed deer and wild turkey were chosen because 
they are the two most important game species in the South. 
Trout are also important game species. The red-cockaded 
woodpecker was chosen because of its regionwide 
distribution, its sensitivity to timber management practices, 
and its status as an endangered species. 
The estimates of impacts shown below, as with most of 
the other estimates of economic and environmental impacts, 
are general approximations of what could happen as the re- 
sult of changes in land use and in the timber resource, in- 
cluding the associated changes in timber management as 
specified in this study. Investments in management pro- 
grams for forage, wildlife, fish, and water are held at 
current levels. There was not enough time to study and 
quantify adequately the effects of the likely intensification 
of management programs for these resources. In recent 
decades, great improvements have been made in the manage- 
ment of many forest resources, especially wildlife, fish, 
and water. These improvements will undoubtedly continue. 
There will be in the future, as in the past, rising invest- 
ments in programs to mitigate the adverse impacts of tim- 
ber management programs and to increase wildlife and fish 
populations and water quantity and quality. 
In appraising the estimates of impacts on forage, 
wildlife, fish, and water from changes in land use and in 
timber resources, the fact that investments in management 
programs for nontimber resources are held constant is of 
great significance. The estimates do not show what is likely 
to happen with continued improvements in management pro- 
