grams for these resources but only the impacts associated 
with changes in land use and the timber resource. 
The estimates of impacts reflect changes in land use and 
timber stand conditions on the total land base. Changes in 
land use, in forest management types, and in timber age 
classes are the chief determinants of changes in forage 
production, wildlife and fish distribution and abundance, and 
water quantity. The overall patterns of land use and forest 
types are similar in the Southeast and South Central regions: 
timberland and pasture areas decline over the projection 
period. The areas with intensive human-related use, such as 
urban areas and roads, show significant gains. 
The most notable change in forest management types is 
the conversion of natural stands to pine plantations. The 
largest part of the conversion comes from natural pine, but 
substantial acreages of mixed pine—hardwoods and upland 
hardwoods are also converted. Changes in age classes dif- 
fer between regions largely because of differences in the 
age-class distributions at the start of the projection period. 
The largest changes over the projection period are the gains 
in the older hardwood age classes in the South Central re- 
gion and the loss of pine in the older age classes, mostly 
in the Southeast.' 
Forage Production—Forage production on all lands, in- 
cluding pasture, range, and timberland, shows a small 
decline—from 54.4 million to 50.6 million tons in the 
Southeast and from 71.8 million to 62.3 million tons in the 
South Central region—over the projection period (app. ta- 
ble 4.6). These decreases reflect a drop in the acreage of 
pasture and range in both regions. 
Forage production on timberlands rises over most of the 
projection years. The bulk of the increase is in the South 
Central region, where forage production goes up from 7.6 
million to 10.4 million tons by 2020. The increase in the 
Southeast is much smaller—from 9.4 million to 9.9 mil- 
lion tons in 2000. There is some decline in both regions af- 
ter the peak years in 2020 and 2000. Forage on timberland 
' The material in this chapter on forage, white-tailed deer, wild turkey, 
red-cockaded woodpecker, cold-water fish, and water has been taken from 
the following office reports: ‘‘Regional Forage Response to Timber 
Management”’ by Linda A. Joyce, ‘‘Regional Wildlife Response to Tim- 
ber Management’’ by Curtis H. Flather, “‘Regional Cold-Water Fish Re- 
sponse to Timber Management’’ by Patricia A. Flebbe, and ‘‘Regional 
Water Response to Timber Management’’ by Stan Ursic. Copies of these 
office reports can be obtained from Linda A. Joyce, USDA Forest Service, 
Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, 240 W. Prospect, 
Fort Collins, CO 80524. 
is produced primarily in younger stands; thus the changes in 
production follow the shifts in acres across both old and 
young age classes. 
During part of the year in the South, when the nutri- 
tional quality of the forage on timberland is low, pasture is 
often used to maintain livestock. The area of pasture in the 
South, however, decreases over the projection years. 
Utilization of the increased forage production on timberland 
might require more intensive management of the remain- 
ing area of pasture and increased use of crop aftermath and 
supplemental feeding. 
Using forage from timberlands year round is possible. But 
it will require the implementation of measures such as more 
frequent burning of timberland, the use of fertilizers to in- 
crease the quantity and quality of forage, and the planting 
of forage species, such as subterranean clover, which hold 
nutritional quality better. 
White-Tailed Deer—By 2030, the average density of 
white-tailed deer per square mile drops from 17.0 to 14.0 
in the Southeast and from 17.7 to 14.5 in the South Cen- 
tral region (app. table 4.6). This decline is due in part to 
the decrease in the area of upland hardwoods and the con- 
version of natural pine and oak—pine to pine plantations. 
The major land use change contributing to decline in deer 
populations is the growth in the area with intensive human- 
related use, particularly urban and road use. The added acre- 
age in such uses directly reduces available deer habitat. 
The associated increases in hunting (legal and illegal) and 
other human-related disturbance also raise deer mortality. 
The decline in deer numbers also reflects the assumption of 
holding investments in wildlife management programs at 
current levels. More intensive management could maintain 
and in some areas increase deer populations. Measures such 
as those described for improving forage will also benefit 
deer. In addition, controlling the size, shape, and distribu- 
tion of clearcuts and pine plantings; thinning stands; 
maintaining management types that produce mast; and 
planting the food plants deer prefer could maintain or 
increase deer populations. Improving enforcement of game 
laws and providing timberland owners with technical 
assistance on desirable management practices could also 
contribute. 
Wild Turkey—Wild turkey populations also show a smail 
decline over the projection period, from 5.3 to 5.0 turkeys 
per square mile in the Southeast and from 6.6 to 6.5 turkeys 
in the South Central region (app. table 4.6). In the early 
decades of the projection period, turkey populations are 
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