simulation. Rates of increase per decade decline over the 
projection period in the progression 9, 7, 5, 3, and | percent 
per decade. This declining trend presumes that rising wood 
costs in the immediate future and current availability of 
substantially more efficient technology lead to rapid 
adoption of new technology in the near term with a gradual 
slowing as cost pressures are reduced. Changes in rates of 
recovery improvement were made for all regions, including 
Canada. 
Under this simulation there is very little change from 
the base projections in softwood harvest levels (timber 
supplies) and timber inventories on private ownerships 
in the South (app. table 4.1). However, softwood inven- 
tories are considerably higher in the Pacific Northwest 
(app. table 4.2), where a higher proportion of the soft- 
wood harvest is used for lumber and plywood. 
Although harvests on private ownerships are below 
the base because of the increased product yields, produc- 
tion of softwood lumber and softwood plywood is up 
in most producing sections, particularly in the later 
projection years. Consumption of softwood roundwood 
pulpwood is also higher in the South because improved 
product recovery reduces the volume of byproducts from 
mill operations available to pulp mills. 
Lower harvests result in a substantial reduction in soft- 
wood stumpage and softwood lumber prices relative to 
base projections in the South and other sections (fig. 
4.7). Improvements in processing efficiency affect em- 
ployment and wages and salaries in the South’s lumber 
and wood products industry (app. table 4.5). Both are 
lower by about 13 percent by 2030. Most of the other 
measures of economic and environmental change, 
however, are close to the base projections. 
This simulation did not include improvements in the 
efficiency of pulp manufacture, such as increasing use of 
hardwoods to replace softwoods, beyond the assump- 
tions used in the base projections. The base projections 
include nearly the level of hardwood-for-softwood sub- 
stitution in pulping that Haygreen and others (1986) 
identified in their study of how technologies could either 
increase the efficiency of wood use or substitute cheaper 
hardwoods for softwoods. In the South, for example, 
this assumption in the base simulation is that pulp fur- 
nish will shift from the current 24 percent hardwood to 
35 percent hardwood by 2030. 
The effects of industry adoption of the technologies 
identified by Haygreen and others (1986) have been 
simulated using the Timber Assessment Market Model 
and described by Skog and Haynes (1987). Skog and 
Haynes found that softwood harvest would be reduced by 
only 15 percent if the pulping technologies were 
adopted. 
This simulation of the effects of improved processing 
efficiency is of considerable importance from the policy 
and program standpoint. Programs can be developed 
to: (1) increase the useful life of wood products by pre- 
servative treatments, improving designs of new 
structures, and renovating and maintaining existing 
structures rather than replacing them; (2) improve effi- 
ciency in harvesting, milling, construction, and 
manufacturing; and (3) utilize unused wood materials 
such as logging residues; treetops and limbs; rough, 
rotten, and salvable dead trees; trees in urban areas, 
fencerows, and low-productivity forest areas; and urban 
wood wastes. By extending timber supplies and reduc- 
ing demand on timber resources, such programs clearly 
have the potential to constrain future increases in stump- 
age and timber product prices. 
High Exports of Timber Products 
In recent years domestic producers have made organized 
efforts to expand exports of lumber, plywood, pulp and 
paper, and other timber products to European and Asian 
countries. Potential in these markets is generally thought to 
be great, perhaps twice current export levels. At the same 
time, it is generally recognized that the conditions which 
would induce expansion of lumber and plywood trade will 
likely lead to a corresponding reduction in U.S. log exports. 
Realizing the potential for expanded trade also depends on 
the willingness of domestic firms to enter new market areas, 
elimination of currently restrictive trade barriers in import- 
ing countries, and the ability of U.S. producers to capture 
a larger export market share in the face of price and other 
kinds of competition from other world suppliers. 
This simulation assumes that in the United States, condi- 
tions have developed that are conducive to, and supportive 
of, expanded export trade. These include government ac- 
tions to facilitate the organizational, information, financia!, 
and transportation aspects of trade comparable to those av: 
able for other products (notably agriculture). Another condi- 
tion is the continued effort to eliminate trade barriers. 
A doubling of exports of the major timber products 
(except softwood logs) over the projection years has the 
obvious effect of increasing demands and harvests (timber 
supplies) over the base projections for softwoods and 
