Oklahoma) would remain close to the present level, about 
53 million acres. According to a recent authoritative study 
of cropland needs (Joint Council on Food and Agricultural 
Sciences 1984), cropland needs nationwide may rise by 50 
million acres by 2020. This estimate is the intermediate 
projection of that study. It was based on long-term trends 
adjusted judgmentally to conform with what was considered 
to be plausible increases in yields. The South’s share of 
such an increase in cropland could add about 16 million acres 
to the cropland acreage assumed in the base projections. 
In this simulation, it was assumed that cropland needs in 
the South would rise in line with the Joint Council’s projec- 
tion and that about 5 million acres would come from pas- 
ture and idle land. It was further assumed that 11 million 
acres of cropland would come from the 23 million acres of 
timberland in the South that have high or medium poten- 
tial for conversion to cropland (table 3.11). The conversion 
to cropland was spread evenly over the next 35 years. 
Under this simulation, there are reductions in net annual 
growth and inventories from the base levels in the last dec- 
ades of the projection period. For softwoods the decreases 
are not large enough to have much impact on stumpage 
prices. For hardwoods, however, there is a significant ef- 
fect over time. The 2030 price of hardwood sawtimber 
stumpage in the Southeast is 18 percent above the base. 
The relatively small impact on the timber resource situa- 
tion from this simulation largely reflects the timing of the 
assumed reductions in area. The changes in the first dec- 
ades are too small to show up in a signficant way in net 
annual growth and inventory. In the latter part of the pro- 
jection period, there are significant reductions in both net an- 
nual growth and inventories. The biggest impacts are on 
hardwoods. In the decades immediately beyond 2030, this 
future would show large impacts on both softwoods and 
hardwoods. 
The reduction in inventories over the projection years is 
not large enough to have much impact on the output of 
products, or on the associated employment, wages and 
salaries, and investments in plants and equipment. There are 
substantial reductions in State and local government reve- 
nues from the timberland and timber base. Presumably, 
however, these reductions would be offset, perhaps more 
than offset, by the revenues from the land in other uses. 
The reduction in timberland area does have significant 
impacts on forage, wildlife, and fish and water (app. table 
4.6). Forage production on timberland declines in both re- 
gions from the base levels. Deer density shows different 
216 
trends. In the Southeast, the increased fragmentation of the 
timberland base results in more-favorable habitat conditions 
and higher deer densities. In the South Central region, 
however, there are less-favorable conditions and deer popula- 
tions are below those in the base projections. 
The increase in cropland and the reduction in hardwood 
area result in slightly reduced densities for turkey in the 
Southeast. Populations in the South Central region, however, 
are not significantly different. The number of counties with 
red-cockaded woodpecker colonies in the Southeast are about 
the same as in the base. In the South Central region, there 
is a further drop, a response to the additional loss of area 
in the natural pine type. 
Water quantity in both regions is above the base because 
of the increased cropland area—runoff is greater on crop- 
land than on timberland. Trout density is substantially above 
the base, in part because of the increase in water quantity. 
It also reflects changes in the age distribution of timber 
stands. 
Reduced Timber Growth 
In recent years, measured declines in the rates of pine 
radial growth in parts of the South have attracted serious 
Reductions in radial growth of pine of 20 to 
30 percent have been measured over large 
areas in the South. If these reductions 
continue and occur throughout the region, 
they would have major impacts. Inventories 
would be greatly reduced, and prices for 
stumpage and products would rise sharply. 
Employment and wages and salaries in the 
lumber and wood products industry would 
also be greatly reduced. 
