result in a large increase in softwood stumpage prices over 
the base projections, especially for pulpwood stumpage. In 
2030, for example, prices for softwood pulpwood stump- 
age in the Southeast are 109 percent above the base (fig. 
4.11). Softwood sawtimber stumpage prices in the region 
are 71 percent higher than the base. Softwood lumber prices 
are 19 percent above the base in 2030. 
Higher stumpage prices in the South cause a sharp drop in 
softwood lumber and plywood production. Output in 2030 
in the South is 6.0 billion board feet and 3.0 billion square 
feet, respectively, under the base. Round pulpwood con- 
sumption for both hardwoods and softwoods is above the 
base figures as roundwood replaces byproducts obtained 
from the manufacture of lumber and plywood. 
Production of softwood lumber outside the South is up 
slightly from the base levels. Softwood lumber imports are 
much higher—by 4.0 billion board feet in 2030. Higher soft- 
wood stumpage prices also shift some demand to the hard- 
Price index (1984 = 100) 
500 
450 
400 
350 
300 
250 
200 
150 
100 
1990 2000 
Reduced timber growth 
wood resource in the South. Consumption of hardwood 
roundwood pulpwood is 300 million cubic feet above the 
base. 
Reduced softwood timber harvests and the associated reduc- 
tions in lumber and plywood production have a dramatic 
impact on employment and wages and salaries in the lum- 
ber and wood products industry (fig. 4.12). By 2030, they 
are only 66 percent of the base. In contrast, there is little 
change in employment in the pulp and paper products 
industry. 
There are similar effects on investments in plants and equip- 
ment. Those in the lumber and wood products industry are 
much reduced, by 24 percent in 2030, while those in the 
pulp and paper industry are about the same. State and local 
government revenues are much reduced over the projection 
years, and by 2030 are over $12 billion below the base 
estimate. 
2010 2020 2030 
Figure 4.11—Projections of softwood pulpwood stumpage price indexes in the Southeast, with and without reduced timber 
growth 
218 
