Thousand employees 
300 
250 
200 
150 
100 
1990 2000 
Reduced timber growth 
2010 2020 2030 
Figure 4.12—Projections of employment in the lumber and wood products industry in the South, with and without reduced 
timber growth 
Forage production on timberland by 2030 is 21 percent 
higher than the base in the Southeast and 12 percent higher 
in the South Central region (app. table 6). The reduction 
in timber growth slows down closure, and the more open 
canopy results in increased forage production. Deer densi- 
ties in the South Central region are also slightly above the 
base, a reflection of the increased acreages in the early for- 
est successional stages. The impacts on deer in the South- 
east and on turkey, red-cockaded woodpecker, and water 
quantity in both regions are small. The projections with re- 
duced timber growth are about the same as those in the 
base. 
Reduced National Forest Timber Harvest 
In approximately the last two decades, it has become in- 
creasingly clear that the future of timber production on the 
national forests depends in part on (1) success in finding 
suitable ways to integrate timber production with other uses 
of forest land, and (2) the need to protect and maintain the 
forest environment, including endangered and threatened 
species. To many it seems likely that, as in the recent past, 
there will be increasing constraints on timber production. 
This simulation responds to such expectations by reducing 
the base harvests from 10.1 billion board feet a year to 8.1 
billion. This decrease in national forest harvest is partly off- 
set by changes in harvests of other owners or in other re- 
gions. In regions where there are sufficient private timber 
supplies, decreases in national forest harvest lead to higher 
stumpage prices that, in turn, increase timber harvests from 
private lands. For example, the national forest harvest in 
the Pacific Northwest—Westside is reduced by 96 million 
cubic feet per year. Total annual harvest, however, is re- 
duced by only 40 million cubic feet by 2000—private har- 
vests having increased by 56 million cubic feet per year. In 
the Pacific Northwest’s Westside, these offsetting changes 
can not be sustained after 2000 because of a worsening 
timber inventory situation. In other sections, such as the 
