Rocky Mountain, the reduction in national forest harvest is 
partly offset throughout the projection period. 
Under this simulation, softwood inventories are down from 
the base numbers in the South and the western sections, with 
the biggest drop in the Pacific Northwest. These declines 
are reflected in intensified competition for the available tim- 
ber and higher prices for softwood sawtimber stumpage. 
Those in the Pacific Northwest, for example, are 17 per- 
cent above the base by 2030 (fig. 4.13). 
Softwood lumber prices are 4 percent higher in 2030 than 
in the base simulation. Because of the lumber price increases, 
total lumber consumption is down 2 percent and lumber im- 
ports from Canada are up 11 percent by 2030. The increase 
in lumber imports comes progressively after 2000 because 
domestic production is reduced as a consequence of the 
lower timber inventories and the associated higher prices. By 
2030, domestic lumber production is 4 percent less than the 
Price index (1984 = 100) 
400 
350 
300 
Reduced national forest harvest 
a 
250 
200 
150 
100 
1990 2000 
base simulation. There are different impacts among regions. 
The largest impacts are in the western sections, particularly 
the Pacific Northwest with its large national forest resources. 
There are no significant impacts on the hardwood resource 
associated with this simulation. Impacts on most other 
economic and environmental measures of change in the 
South, such as investments in plants and equipment, and 
wildlife and fish populations are also not large enough to 
be significant. 
Natural Regeneration on Marginal Cropland and Pasture 
As shown in tables 3.13 and 5.8, the South has about 22 
million acres of marginal cropland and pasture, including 
highly erodible cropland, that would yield higher rates of re- 
turn to the owners if planted to pine. If crop surpluses and 
the associated depressed farm conditions continue, this land 
could logically be expected to be among the first to be left 
2020 2030 
Figure 4.13—Projections of softwood sawtimber stumpage price indexes in the Pacific Northwest, with and without 
reduced national forest timber harvest 
220 
