idle, unused for either crops or pasture. In the South, for- 
ests are the climax vegetation, and idle land will revert to 
forests, most of it to natural pine (70 percent) in the South- 
east and to hardwoods (60 percent) in the South Central 
region. In this simulation, two-thirds of the natural rever- 
sion was assumed to take place over the next 15 years in 
equal annual increments, with the remaining one-third by 
2010. 
This natural reversion would have significant effects on the 
forest situation in the South, particularly on the hardwood 
picture. By 2030, hardwood net annual growth is 9 per- 
cent above and inventories are 17 percent above the base 
projections. Softwood net annual growth is slightly higher 
and inventories are 22 percent higher than the base levels. 
Most of the increases for both softwoods and hardwoods 
are on the other private ownerships. 
As a result of the increased inventories and increased sup- 
plies, there are some declines in prices for sawtimber and 
pulpwood stumpage and some associated increases in lum- 
ber and plywood production and employment and wages and 
salaries in the lumber and wood products industry. In 
general, however, these effects and those on the other mea- 
sures of resource and environmental change are relatively 
modest. This reflects in large part the timing of the establish- 
ment and stocking of natural stands. The full effects from 
the natural regeneration of stands would not take place 
within the projection period. 
Planted Pine on Marginal Cropland and Pasture 
In the previous simulation, it is assumed that nature in ef- 
fect takes its course, that there are no forestry or conserva- 
tion programs that would result in the establishment of pine 
plantations on marginal cropland and pasture. If depressed 
farm conditions continue, planting programs like the cur- 
rent Conservation Reserve Program may be expanded. If this 
is done, such programs are likely to be directed at the mar- 
ginal cropland and pasture, including the highly erodible 
cropland (tables 3.13 and 5.8). The timing of the establish- 
ment of the plantations was assumed to be the same as that 
for natural pine. 
The implementation of these opportunities would have large 
impacts on softwood timber resources and the timber econ- 
omy of the South. By 2030, softwood timber inventories 
would be increased by 38 billion cubic feet or 43 percent of 
the base projections (fig. 4.14). Softwood timber supplies 
would be up by 5 percent, or about 0.3 billion cubic feet. 
In response to this rise, softwood sawtimber stumpage 
prices would go down by 22 percent, with even larger drops 
Planting pine on economically marginal 
cropland and pasture and highly erodible 
cropland would substantially increase 
softwood net annual growth and inventories 
and reduce stumpage prices. Timber 
harvests would rise, and so would 
employment and wages and salaries in the 
forest industries. 
in pulpwood stumpage prices. Softwood lumber prices are 
also down. 
Because of increases in demand from the lower prices, 
production of softwood lumber and plywood in the South 
is up from the base, in the case of lumber by 1.5 billion 
board feet by 2030. There is an associated and substantial 
rise in consumption of softwood plant byproducts and a re- 
lated drop in consumption of softwood roundwood pulp- 
wood since more byproducts are available to substitute for 
roundwood. There is also an associated drop in softwood 
lumber imports, to 0.6 billion board feet below the base pro- 
jection by 2030. 
The increases in lumber and plywood production are 
reflected in higher levels of employment and wages and 
salaries in the lumber and wood products industry—10 per- 
cent. There are also increases in investments in plants and 
equipment in the lumber and wood products industry and in- 
creases in State and local government revenues. 
Economic Opportunities on Timberland in Private 
Ownership 
As described in detail in chapter 5, there are economic op- 
portunities (defined as those that would yield 4 percent or 
more net of inflation or deflation) to increase timber sup- 
plies on 63 million acres of timberland in private owner- 
ship in the South (app. table 5.1). These opportunities, if 
i) 
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